“Until last week’s banking fiasco, I think [Federal Reserve Chair] Jay Powell was losing the war against inflation,” Cramer said. But the bank run which led to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and the concurrent tech troubles are signs that Powell is winning the battle, if not the war, he added.
Cramer acknowledged that prices remain high for travel, housing, and groceries, but given the broader turmoil, “we don’t want the Fed to turn a potential soft landing into a hard one.”
Regional banks have largely rebounded from concerns over SVB’s deposit run, which Cramer said he had never seen in his lifetime. But it’s largely a moot point, given that confidence in the banking system has been hammered and the consumer is exhausted.
Tech layoffs, the collapse of commercial real estate and spiking credit card usage all indicate that even with “pockets of confidence,” the Fed is coming close to victory, he said.
“I now believe it would be reckless if Powell goes much beyond 5%,” Cramer said.