Severe weather, including a threat of tornadoes, is expected to increase once again beginning later this week in parts of the storm-weary South, Midwest and Plains states.
This recent relative lull in severe weather following the early April outbreak of over 140 tornadoes is about to come to an end, typical of spring. While it’s a bit too soon to determine all the key details of this forecast, here is what you need to know right now.
(MORE: Almost 120-Mile Long Tornado Track Confirmed)
Where And When
– Late Week: Eastern Nebraska, northern Missouri and Iowa could see large hail Thursday night. Then, areas from the Great Lakes to Oklahoma and northern Texas have a threat of severe storms Friday.
Friday’s Severe Weather Forecast
– Easter holiday weekend: From the Ohio Valley to Southern Plains Saturday, then in the Southern Plains and lower and mid-Mississippi valleys Easter Sunday.
Sunday’s Severe Weather Forecast
– Next week: Parts of the Central and Southern Plains into the South and occasionally the Ohio Valley could see one or more rounds of severe weather much of the week.
The Threats
– Damaging thunderstorm winds, large hail and at least a few tornadoes are possible each day from late this week into next week.
– It remains too soon to tell if there may be one or more larger outbreaks of severe weather including more numerous tornadoes, some of which could be strong.
– Locally flooding rainfall is also a concern, especially by next week, in parts of the areas described above.
How This Might Be Different
– The map below shows the confirmed tornadoes and reports from the three large outbreaks we’ve seen since mid-March. You may notice the red icons bunched up over the Mississippi and Ohio valleys, as well as the Deep South.
tornadoes confirmed outbreaks march april 2025
– Now compare that map above with the map below, which shows our rainfall outlook from late this week into next week. While some locally heavy rain is possible in the flooded zone of the lower Ohio and Mississippi River valleys, note the best chance for heaviest rain into next week is centered more on the Southern Plains, from Texas to the Ozarks.
– Similarly, we may see severe thunderstorms, especially next week, centered farther west into the Southern Plains than recent outbreaks.
Rainfall Outlook Late Week Into Next Week
Why The Severe Comeback
– A jet stream plunging southward into the West, then punching into the Plains states will pull increasingly warm and humid air north from the Gulf.
– It’s this configuration that typically produces more severe weather in the southern and central U.S. in spring. Over the past week or so, roughly the opposite pattern has kept severe weather relatively in check since the end of the early April outbreak.
severe thunderstorm forecast
What You Should Do
– If you’re in one of these areas, have a plan in place before severe weather strikes.
– Have several ways of receiving watches and warnings from the National Weather Service, including by smartphone (The Weather Channel app can alert you), NOAA weather radio and local media. Make sure your smartphone is fully charged and NOAA weather radio batteries are fresh so they can wake you up at night if a warning is issued.
– Know the safest place you can quickly get to in case a warning is issued. If you live in a manufactured home, that safest place may be a community storm shelter.
– Heed any warning issued immediately, including those for severe thunderstorms. It doesn’t take a tornado to down a tree onto your home or vehicle.
– Never drive into flood waters. You could be carried away and the road underneath could have been washed away. Flooding has already claimed 33 lives in 2025, according to the National Weather Service, 21 of which were killed in vehicles.
(MORE: 15 Severe Weather Tips That Could Save Your Life)
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.