prices were set for another weekly rise after additional 25% tariffs on Indian exports to the United States kicked in on Wednesday, raising doubts about the supply of Russian crude.
At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $68.17 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $64.20 per barrel, both slightly down from Thursday’s close as the end of driving season in the United States comes and the seasonal fuel demand peak passes.
Meanwhile, India has been buying more Russian oil ahead of the additional tariffs, and this is set to continue, it seems. Indian refiners are set to raise their imports by between 150,000 barrels per day and 300,000 bpd in September, or up by 10-20% compared to August volumes, Reuters reported earlier this week, citing unnamed industry sources. Even so, oil prices have benefited from the sense of uncertainty surrounding the issue in the media.
The benchmarks also received support from the latest string of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, including several refineries. The attacks have affected the availability of fuels, boosting international prices.
The immediate global outlook, however, remains bearish as OPEC+ continues to return supply to the market and demand subsides as summer in the northern hemisphere ends. These factors have been countering the bullishness of Russia sanctions.
“We expect rising OPEC+ supply and a seasonal fall in global refining activity from September will result in a pick-up in global oil stockpiles in coming months. We forecast Brent oil futures falling to $63/bbl in Q4 2025,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar told Reuters.
ING commodity analysts noted that oil prices also got a boost from the dimming prospects for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which means that “risks of sanctions and secondary tariffs continue to hang over the oil market.”