prices are on the rise as global geopolitical risks continue to escalate, leading to uncertainty about whether the market is heading toward an oversupply or a potential shortage and whether the war between Russia and Ukraine expand. Tensions increased recently after Poland shot down drones, and ongoing reports point to elevated risks across Eastern Europe.
President Trump responded to Russia’s drone incursion into Poland, calling it “unprecedented” and posting, “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!” on his social media platform, Wednesday. Reports indicated that at least 19 Russian drones flew over Poland during the night, according to statements from Poland’s prime minister.
In response, two Polish F-16s and two Dutch F-35s were deployed and engaged the drones. This event is being interpreted as a demonstration of NATO’s response capabilities and intentions regarding escalation.
This comes as President Trump is pressuring the EU to impose tariffs on China and India to influence Russia and alter global energy dynamics. This action may affect international trade and energy markets beyond Europe and Asia.
But let’s not forget the bigger picture. The longer-term outlook is still in flux as reporting agencies try to sell us on a coming oversupply, with OPEC+ signaling intentions to ramp up output. Yet the math with compensation cuts did not add up and it makes one wonder why the agencies keep pushing this oil glut theory.
The question for investors and industry insiders alike: Are we barreling toward a glut, or is there still room for a surprise shortage to throw the market into chaos? All eyes remain glued to the data and the headlines—because in this market, every drop and every drone can move the needle.
If you’re searching for signals in the Energy Information Administration Report, it offered some mixed and bearish signals. increased to 9,946 million barrels a day from 9,909, up 380.00 from the week before. I guess you can get more blood from a turnip.
Crude oil imports told another story, averaging 6.3 million barrels per day—a drop of 471,000 barrels from the week before. Over the last month, imports have tracked around 6.4 million barrels daily, a slight 0.5% dip year-over-year. Gasoline imports, counting finished fuel and blending components, hit 681,000 barrels daily, and distillate imports settled at 217,000 barrels per day.
But here’s where the numbers get interesting: commercial crude inventories (excluding the SPR) rose by 3.9 million barrels, putting the total at 424.6 million barrels—about 3% below the five-year norm. Gasoline stocks climbed 1.5 million barrels, matching the seasonal average.
Distillate inventories surged 4.7 million barrels, though they’re still running 9% under the five-year average. Meanwhile, propane/propylene reserves ticked up 1.5 million barrels, standing 12% above the seasonal trend. Total U.S. commercial petroleum inventories shot up by a hefty 15.4 million barrels in just a week.
Turning to demand, the total products supplied over the last four weeks averaged 20.9 million barrels a day—2% higher than last year. Gasoline demand lagged slightly at 8.9 million barrels daily, down 0.6% year-over-year. Distillate demand picked up, averaging 3.8 million barrels a day, up 2% from last year. Jet fuel demand, meanwhile, soared 4.9% above last year’s pace.
As always, these numbers set the stage for traders and analysts alike. Will rising inventories keep a lid on prices, or will bullish demand trends win out? Stay tuned.
is trying to find a bottom as we get closer to today’s report. Seasonally obviously, we’re in shoulder season but the bigger picture if you look at the LNG exports should be solid Anthony Harrup at the Wall Street Journal wrote that, “U.S. natural gas futures give back gains from the previous two sessions ahead of inventory data expected to show an increase in the storage surplus that tops the five-year average.
Comfortable temperatures in much of the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic, and lighter demand due to the Labor Day holiday likely contributed to an above-average storage build, NatGasWeather.com says in a note. Analysts in a Wall Street Journal survey predict an injection of 69 Bcf, which would raise the surplus to 186 Bcf from 173 Bcf the week before. Nymex natural gas settles down 2.8% at $3.029/mmBtu.
We offer our deepest condolences and prayers for Charlie Kirk and his family and friends after his horrific assassination. His death, coming one day ahead of the anniversary of September 11th, reminds us that we must stand up against evil of all kinds and pray for peace. We can never allow terrorists to silence us—whether they are political terrorists who want to silence those who speak the truth about morality and freedom, or those who hate justice and liberty.
These forces of evil can never prevail, and in memory of all who have fallen, we will stand stronger than ever. God bless them, and God bless America.