After thunderstorms and rain dampen the low country tonight and this weekend, Invest 94L’s arrival is expected to bring a storm surge to the southeast at the start of next week.
“By Monday, things start to fall off the cliff here,” said National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologist Ron Morales at the service’s briefing at 11:30 a.m. on Friday, Sept. 26. “We could start getting much more higher level impacts,” particularly coastal flooding, if 94L makes landfall.
94L is expected to spin into a better-defined cyclone within the next two days. But Hurricane Humberto is complicating its projected path.
As with Hurricane Gabrielle, we can wave soon-to-be major Hurricane Humberto goodbye, which will end up about 500 miles off the east coast by Wednesday. But as Humberto twirls off into the distance, it could bump into 94L—resulting in a dance of entangled intensities and trajectories that muddle meteorologists’ models.
More: Two major storms develop in the Atlantic, and one may hit our coast
Active Tropical Storm Floaters 94L and Tropical Storm Humberto in the Atlantic Ocean
Whether Humberto and 94L (impending Imelda) will merge, bounce off one another, or absorb into the other through the Fujiwhara Effect has been a swirling subject of debate.
“However, the most recent models are not trending towards a strong FE,” wrote University of Georgia meteorologist James Marshall Shepherd in an email.
But the fact that a pair of storms are near land does seem unprecedented.
“Close to land, you would expect one to make landfall or be weakened,” wrote Shepherd. “I think the disruptive nature of land makes it rare to see two so close to each other.” It’s a coincidence, he concludes.
During his 17 years at the NWS, Morales said he does not “remember having two tropical systems this close to each other, this close to land.”
And it also seems to be stumping the NWS’ models.
“The models struggle with trying to figure out what to do with it,” said Morales. “The strength of it and the track is what really becomes uncertain.”
So far, yesterday’s projection scenarios still stand, and low country Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina are waiting on the edge of their seats to see which state will receive the direct hit.
“If this storm makes landfall, and even a Cat 1 in the area, somewhere between Beaufort and Charleston, that would be the first time in my 17 years here where a storm of that intensity made direct landfall from the ocean,” said Morales.
The National Weather Service’s guidance on how to prepare for hurricane season can be found at weather.gov/safety/hurricane.
Jillian Magtoto covers climate change and the environment in coastal Georgia. You can reach her at jmagtoto@gannett.com.
This reporting content is supported by a partnership with Green South Foundation, Prentice Foundation and Journalism Funding Partners.
This article originally appeared on Savannah Morning News: 94L set to become a tropical cyclone, but where it will land is complicated