We live in a world where half-truths, misleading headlines and unsubstantiated conclusions are increasingly the norm.
Though Shell continues publicly to proclaim itself as a “good neighbor” to residents of Beaver County, events from this week suggest they are all too happy to amplify such half-truths, misleading headlines and unsubstantiated conclusions so long as they suit their business interests.
On Sept. 22, Shell posted the following on their Facebook page: “Breaking news! A comeback in Beaver County? U.S. Census data highlights a regional population boost linked to Shell’s presence in western Pennsylvania.” This claim masquerading as a news headline was posted along with a recently released publication by Pittsburgh Works Together titled “Shell Cracker Plant Appears to Spark Population Turnaround in Beaver and Surrounding Counties.”
Pittsburgh Works Together describes itself as “a business-organized labor-workforce-economic development alliance.” In a three-page publication available on its website, the reporter correctly explains that four counties near the cracker plant have witnessed “positive domestic migration” since the facility began operations in 2022. Included in that list are Beaver and Lawrence counties in Pennsylvania and Columbiana and Hancock counties in Ohio. Simply stated, this means that more people have been moving into these counties than out of them since 2022.
So far as demographic data goes, the info highlighted by Pittsburgh Works Together is intriguing and important. And, for those interested in community and economic development matters, it is data that is indeed worth highlighting publicly. That being said, the conclusions drawn from such insights should be troubling for those who seek to engage in data-informed and responsible economic development practices.
At both the outset and conclusion of their publication, Pittsburgh Works Together explains, “the Shell Chemical cracker plant appears to be the catalyst for a population turnaround in Beaver County.” Taking Pittsburgh Works Together’s publication at face value, the only possible explanation for such positive migration is the opening of Shell’s facility in the fall of 2022. This is neither a defensible nor a responsible inference to draw from the available evidence.
In my previous life as a college professor, I regularly taught classes in logic, argumentation and rhetoric. Had a student attempted to use such data similarly, I would have broken down the structure of the argument for them very simply, just to show how problematic their conclusions were. In its simplest form, Pittsburgh Works Together argues the following: Since more people have moved into Beaver and surrounding counties since 2022, and since Shell started operations in 2022, then it must be the case that Shell is responsible for such increased migration.
Adopting the logic at the heart of Pittsburgh Works Together’s article, one could make all kinds of problematic arguments. Here’s just one example: since more people have moved into Beaver and the surrounding counties since 2022, and since the Pittsburgh Pirates have been a miserable baseball team since 2022, then it must be the case that the Pirates’ record is responsible for such increased migration.
Apart from Shell’s presence in Beaver County, there are a whole bunch of other potential explanations for the kind of increased migration identified by Pittsburgh Works Together.
Could it be, for instance, that people are moving to Beaver County because it has comparatively cheap housing stock relative to Pittsburgh or other national markets? Could national inflation and decreased consumer buying power be driving people to Beaver County? Could reinvigorated community identity, entrepreneurship and cultural innovation in Beaver County be motivating others to move here?
What role does the explosion of virtual employment opportunities in a post-COVID world play in such demographic shifts?
Is it possible that people are moving into Beaver County because there is now a sense of relief that the promised reindustrialization of the region is not actually occurring as Shell promised? Or is it possible that a glut of cheap housing stock emerged after Shell’s temporary workforce went back to their permanent homes, thereby encouraging others to move here to fill such vacancies?
All of these possibilities, and many more besides, could help to explain why Beaver County has seen an influx of new residents since 2022. But neither Shell nor Pittsburgh Works Together appears interested in asking those questions. They are instead hoping that – without evidence – you will assume that Shell alone has made such things possible.
Beyond the flawed reasoning and lack of intellectual curiosity described above, there are all kinds of other reasons why Shell’s amplification of Pittsburgh Works Together’s article should be so troubling to thoughtful residents of Beaver County. As the authors explicitly state, the conclusions drawn about Shell’s impact on migration are “important as other mega-projects are proposed for southwest Pennsylvania and communities explore the potential benefits of these projects.”
They continue, “The Beaver County data imply that creating jobs and economic opportunity will attract new residents, just as one would expect.” Pittsburgh Works Together would have you believe that since Shell was responsible for increased migration, we should support all kinds of other similar projects if we want to move toward economic prosperity for Beaver County.
Those interested can read about how little economic growth has occurred in our region in the last decade by picking up “A Cautionary Tale of Petrochemicals from Pennsylvania,” which was released in June 2023 by the Ohio River Valley Institute (ORVI). Using a range of available data sets, ORVI carefully substantiates the claim that since the initiation of the cracker plant, “Beaver County has seen a declining population, zero growth in GDP, zero growth in jobs, lackluster progress in reducing poverty, and zero growth in businesses.”
The picture that ORVI and others have painted belies oft-repeated industry pronouncements about the local economic benefits that are promised by such mega projects. Should Pittsburgh Works Together and Shell genuinely and authentically want to demonstrate the economic benefits of the cracker plant and other similar projects, they must carefully contend with such substantial evidence to the contrary.
For those who have been following public pronouncements about the cracker plant since the beginning, Shell’s amplification of Pittsburgh Works Together’s article demonstrates just how underwhelming their presence has been for the region. In 2012, then Pennsylvania Secretary of Community and Economic Development Alan Walker projected that “by the year 2020 or shortly thereafter, there could be as many as 220,000 jobs in Pennsylvania tied to gas drilling and support industries.”
In 2021, a study by Robert Morris University estimated that Shell’s presence would bring with it 12,000 new jobs and more than $70 billion in economic benefits to southwestern Pennsylvania. And these numbers were significantly scaled back from previously published estimates by RMU that have now been scrubbed from the public record.
When Shell first landed in Beaver County, I remember them showing residents a map containing a series of concentric circles stretching 500 miles, with Beaver County at the center. Shell officials actually said that once they “turned the lights on” at the plant, we would never recognize Beaver County and the surrounding counties again. These were the kinds of projections and rhetorical flourishes that were made by Shell on the regular to gain support for their project.
Yet today, just several years into operations, one of the largest corporations on the planet is now forced to validate a $1.65 billion public subsidy by drawing obviously false conclusions about 867 residents who happened to move to Beaver County around the same time Shell started operating. And, on the back of such “evidence,” they and Pittsburgh Works Together are hoping you will provide ongoing support for more of the same.
If you’ve stuck with me this far, here’s one last tidbit worth considering. Let’s suppose for a moment that you are convinced that all positive migration into Beaver County was indeed a result of Shell opening its facility in 2022. As I alluded to above, don’t forget that the Pennsylvania Legislature provided Shell with a $1.65 billion tax break in exchange for locating its facility in the commonwealth. If one plays along with Shell’s faulty reasoning and accepts that the net gain of 867 residents reported by Pittsburgh Works Together is indeed thanks to Shell, that means that Pennsylvania taxpayers have paid $1,903,114 to attract each of those 867 residents into Beaver County.
Though Shell would have you believe that their presence in our community has been some kind of benevolent gift that is transforming the region, growing the population, and fueling our local economy, this is simply not supported by data, experience, or reason.
Our communities and our residents deserve better from a “good neighbor.”
Daniel Rossi-Keen, Ph.D., is an author, speaker, entrepreneur, and community development advocate. He is the executive director of RiverWise, a nonprofit focused on organizing community voice and power so that residents can reclaim agency over the future of Beaver County. Daniel’s writing is featured regularly in “The Bridge,” a publication containing curated news and original stories for, by, and about residents of Beaver County. You can reach Daniel at daniel@getriverwise.com.
This article originally appeared on Beaver County Times: Opinion: Shell amplifies unreliable claims on county population growth