Saudi Arabia is expected to slightly raise the price of its flagship grade loading for Asia in November, to reflect stronger Middle Eastern oil benchmarks, refining sources told Reuters in a survey released on Monday.
The world’s top crude exporter will be tempted to increase its prices amid stronger international benchmarks in recent weeks, but it would also be careful not to hike the price too much amid ongoing discussions about the 2026 term supplies with customers, according to some of Reuters’ sources.
Saudi Arabia typically announces around the fifth of each month its crude pricing for the following month and doesn’t comment on price changes. It also sets the tone for the pricing to Asia of the other major oil producers in the Middle East.
Early this month, Saudi Arabia slashed the price of the crude oil it will sell to Asia in October after OPEC+ decided to tap the last layer of production cuts of 1.65 million bpd. The lowered price was seen as a move from the Saudis to reclaim market share in the world’s top crude-importing region.
For November, Saudi Aramco is expected to raise the price for its flagship Arab Light grade by between $0.20 and $0.40 per barrel to a premium of $2.40 to $2.60 a barrel over the Dubai/Oman benchmark, according to the expectations of refiners in Asia.
The other Saudi grades, Arab Extra Light, Arab Medium, and Arab Heavy, are also set to see increases of between $0.30 and $0.60 per barrel for November versus October, the Reuters survey showed.
A rise in the Saudi crude prices would be consistent with a rally in the Dubai pricing structure, where the cash Dubai premium to Dubai swaps rallied in the first two weeks of September to the highest in six months. Earlier this month, prices rose amid expectations that additional sanctions on Iran and/or Russia could tighten supply for Asian buyers.
However, the international benchmarks slumped early on Monday as exports from Iraq’s semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan resumed over the weekend after two and a half years, and reports emerged that OPEC+ could decide this coming weekend to continue boosting output.