After reviewing the movements of on a daily chart since Jan. 20, 2025, when President Donald Trump took office, I notice that fears of unexpected economic turmoil began to grow shortly after he started using his emergency powers. These actions extended beyond the scope of what is typically covered under emergency powers, where Congress usually has the authority to change policies. Trump ignored this and began imposing tariffs on U.S. trading partners, which led to increased global economic uncertainty.
Undoubtedly, the global central banks suddenly engaged in panic buying to counteract the damage caused by an unusual tariff trade war. Initially, this war led to reciprocal tariffs by trading partners on U.S. imports and eventually shifted towards geopolitical conflicts as Trump influenced these nations’ trade relations, affecting the global economy. The situation worsened when President Donald Trump aimed to pressure regional conflicts to enforce trade only with the US under new tariffs, threatening higher tariffs for those who refused. This became his primary strategy, especially around April-May 2025, with a focus on influencing global trade policies.
This geopolitical tension triggered panic buying in gold, with China emerging as a major buyer, aiming to reduce its dependence on the US dollar by increasing gold reserves. Other US trading partners might have noticed China’s moves, leading to a rally in gold futures from $2745 on Jan. 21, 2025, to $2968, which was tested on Feb. 11, 2025. Subsequently, gold faced bearish pressure below this level, falling to $2847 on Feb. 28, 2025, before rising again.
Another rally occurred from these lows, reaching $3198 on April 2, 2025, but was followed by a sharp decline within three sessions to $2970 on April 7. Gold then rebounded to a high of $3512 on April 22, 2025, but this level prompted a correction, resulting in a retracement to $3217 by May 1, 2025.
The $3512 resistance on April 22 apparently kept the upward momentum in check, as traders recognized this level as significant. A subsequent rally from $3209 in early May couldn’t challenge this high and instead declined to $3125 on May 15. Gold then traded within a range of $3253 to $3450 till August 8, 2025, when a rally began after testing $3319 on July 30, culminating in a new high of $3533 on August 8, 2025.
Expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its September 17 meeting fueled this rally. However, bears became active, pushing prices down to $3355 on August 19, 2025. Gold found support at the 50 DMA at $3376 before beginning another upward move from August 22, after holding this support for a few days. Resistance was encountered at $3315 on September 9, 2025.
This resistance was tough, and despite multiple attempts by bulls to break above it, the price finally succeeded on September 22, 2025, with a new high of $3808 recorded on September 23, 2025.
Now, gold futures are trying to sustain above this significant resistance, after finding some support at the immediate support at the 9 DMA at $3757 since Sept. 25 but this record high tested by the gold futures at $3844 has triggered alarming bell as the bulls could find difficult to breathe at this high, before starting to slide back as adding more gold at this price will only be an attempt to add a non-yield assets which has already lost its safe haven potential, and trading inside a “Trapping Zone”.
Undoubtedly, further moves will depend on the inflow of news, but the bears are still on top as the recent shifts in central bank policies of the major central banks ensure a meltdown in gold could start anytime this week, as I have explained in my last analysis.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold futures at their own risk, as this analysis is only based on observations.