The last hurricane to make landfall in New England was 34 years ago, and some think it might be well past time for another.
Hurricane season is expected to be above-normal this year, with experts like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasting as many as 19 possible storms.
Michael Ferragamo, a Boston native and University of Oklahoma student who mapped all the hurricanes that have made landfall in the mainland U.S. since records began in 1851, thinks that New England may be overdue for a hurricane.
According to the hurricane database, there have been 15 hurricane landfalls in New England since 1851. On average, the return period between hurricanes is 11.5 years, much shorter than the current 34 year “drought.”
But Ferragamo also said that long “hurricane droughts” aren’t necessarily uncommon: the longest stretch without a landfall was 42 years between 1896 and 1938. Short stretches aren’t unheard of either, as two hurricanes once hit New England within 12 days.
“If we take this beyond New England, and to the US Northeast as a whole, the entire region has not had a hurricane strike thus far in the 21st century,” Ferragamo said in a post on X. “I have no doubt the next hurricane up here will take millions by surprise.”
More: Hurricane season is here, and the nation’s top forecaster has an urgent message
According to Colorado State University’s outlook, published in April, there’s a 40% chance that at least one storm could impact Massachusetts this season and a 18% chance that it’s a hurricane.
Strongest hurricanes to hit New England
While the region is better known for its harsh winters and Nor’easters, it has taken brutal hits from major hurricanes too.
In 1938, the Great New England Hurricane, which made landfall on the Connecticut coast, produced the strongest hurricane-related surface wind gust ever recorded in the United States, 186 mph at Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts, just a few miles south of Boston. It killed 600 people and caused $400 million in damage.
A view of damage along Cole River in the aftermath of the 1938 New England Hurricane in Bristol County, Rhode Island, U.S., in 1938. Courtesy Rhode Island Archive/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS – THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY.
In 1954, Hurricane Carol killed 68 and caused more than $461 million in damage, and Hurricane Gloria in 1985 killed eight people and caused $900 million in damage.
Hurricane Bob, the most recent hurricane in 1991, made landfall near New Bedford and cut across southeastern Massachusetts. It caused $1 billion in damage.
There have been other powerful storms to hit New England since 1991, like Tropical Storm Irene in 2011, but they haven’t been classified as hurricanes upon landfall in the region.
This article originally appeared on Cape Cod Times: Hurricane season 2025: Is New England overdue for a hurricane?