extended its bullish trajectory this week, trading near $3,370 per ounce, marking its highest levels in recent sessions and continuing a rally that has been building since late May. The precious metal gained momentum amid a confluence of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and market sentiment factors.
Markets remain highly sensitive to incoming U.S. economic data, particularly following the mixed signals from recent PMI figures and jobless claims reports. This sensitivity intensified after the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for May showed a sharp slowdown, with only 37,000 private sector jobs added, well below expectations of 110,000.
This disappointing figure raised fresh concerns about the strength of the labor market and heightened the focus on Friday’s official and reports.
Current forecasts point to an increase of approximately 126,000 jobs for May, down from 177,000 in April, with the unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 4.2%. Any downside surprise in these figures could reinforce market expectations for a rate cut as early as September.
Currently, Fed Funds Futures are pricing in around a 65% probability of a cut by that time, down from 75% a week ago, an adjustment that continues to support gold prices while maintaining an element of volatility.
At the same time, the has pulled back slightly from recent highs near 4.50%, providing some breathing room for non-yielding assets like gold. Meanwhile, the (DXY) has been trading within a relatively narrow range, offering little directional pressure. This environment has allowed gold to gradually extend its gains, as investor demand leans toward safer assets.
On the demand side, central banks, particularly those in China and various emerging markets, continue to accumulate gold, reinforcing structural demand. Moreover, gold ETFs, which had experienced persistent outflows in recent months, are now beginning to record modest inflows. This shift reflects a change in institutional sentiment, driven by lingering inflation concerns and a renewed appetite for hedging against global uncertainty.
Geopolitical developments are also contributing to gold’s attractiveness. Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, and renewed trade war, particularly regarding tariffs between the United States and the European Union, has reinforced safe-haven flows.
From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade within a well-defined bullish trend, confirmed by the alignment of the exponential moving averages (EMA 20 > EMA 50 > EMA 100), all sloping upward. The price remains above all EMAs, indicating strong bullish momentum and sustained buying interest. The upper Bollinger Band is being tested or slightly expanded, reflecting persistent upward volatility and trend strength.
The MACD remains in bullish territory, with the MACD line comfortably above the signal line, suggesting that momentum continues to favor the upside. However, the histogram bars are beginning to flatten, which could indicate a potential loss of momentum or an upcoming period of consolidation.
Meanwhile, the Stochastic RSI is hovering near overbought levels (above 80), a common condition during strong uptrends. Although this signals a short-term overextension, it does not yet confirm a reversal unless a clear downward crossover occurs.
Key Support Levels:
- $3318 – Previous upper Bollinger Band and near the EMA 20; a pullback toward this level could attract fresh buying.
- $3240 – EMA 50 and former resistance turned support; a key level that supports the ongoing trend.
- $3120 – EMA 100 and the lower Bollinger Band zone; a solid medium-term floor.
Key Resistance Levels:
- $3375–3380 – Immediate horizontal resistance and psychological barrier, currently being tested.
- $3420 – Projected resistance from previous upward extensions based on recent wave patterns.
- $3500 – A round number resistance and potential target if bullish momentum accelerates further.
The overall trend remains strongly bullish, with the price structure continuing to produce higher highs and higher lows. As long as gold remains above the 20-day EMA and does not fall below the $3240–$3318 support zone, the uptrend is expected to remain intact.
However, with momentum indicators such as the Stochastic RSI in overbought territory and some flattening visible in the MACD histogram, short-term consolidation or minor pullbacks cannot be ruled out. Such retracements may offer more attractive entry opportunities for traders aligned with the prevailing bullish trend.
