Agricultural Commodities-Where’s the Deflation in This?

On Sunday, I wrote the playbook for the Economic Modern Family 

1. Watch Granny -a failure of those key levels, spells more trouble for . (She did not fail) 
2. Watch Semis -if it pulls above $260 follow growth stocks. If it holds $240 buy dips, and if it fails $240 prepare for a bigger sell-off. (Semis held 260) 
3. Watch -the opportunities in this sector appear to be ripe. (IBB was not the sexy play, but will be if it clears key resistance at 131) 

I have also written a lot about hard assets- (flying), (holding), oil (consolidating) and (basing). 

I also noted that were starting to break out last week. 

Now I turn my attention to Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:), the ETF of agricultural and soft commodities. 

With and showing inflation going down, I wish I could say the same for this chart! 

I show 2 charts of DBA-the Daily and the Weekly timeframes. 

On the Daily, the phase is bullish as the 50-DMA sits above the 200-DMA and the price is above both MAs. (PHASE) 

DBA cleared the January 6-month calendar range. 

Time to strike? 

While it’s not outperforming , nor has it since late April, we have something to watch for. 

And momentum is in a bearish divergence with the moving averages not stacked. Plus, the red dots have t0 to clear the 50-DMA (blue). 

On the weekly charts, the price has been consolidating since the April flush. 

The phase is bullish and has been since January 2024. That is why I find the bearish calls so out of touch. 

While momentum has waned along with leadership-given the current volatility in the markets, the seasonal potential weather disruption, and the global conflicts, we are watching. 

What we want to see 

1. DBA outperforms on leadership (Daily). 
2. Real Motion gains momentum.
3. DBA’s current price holds Friday’s low of 26.80. 
4. DBA closes the week at or over 27.40. 

ETF Summary  

(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)  

S&P 500 (SPY) 600 so pivotal 

Russell 2000 (IWM) 215 resistance 210 pivotal support 

Dow (DIA) 425 now pivotal 

Nasdaq (QQQ) 528 support  

Regional banks (KRE) 55 support 60 resistance  

Semiconductors (SMH) 260 pivotal  

Transportation (IYT) 68 resistance 64 support 

Biotechnology (IBB) 123 supports 130 resistance 

Retail (XRT) 75.50 support, 77 now pivotal resistance  

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 107 pivotal support