With the 4th of July weekend upon us, residents of Sarasota and Manatee counties are wondering how the weather will impact the many fireworks displays on Thursday and Friday nights, as well as holiday plans through the weekend.
For the past week, the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service have been monitoring a tropical disturbance in the Gulf near central and north Florida. The NHC predicts that the system has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression over the next seven days, likely off the east coast of Florida.
“Given the multiple days of rainfall and the training of storms today could bring the potential for isolated minor flooding,” says the latest NWS forecast for our area.
Currently, the NWS predicts showers and thunderstorms throughout the day and into the evening for Thursday and Friday. The Thursday forecast indicates a 90% chance of precipitation for both days, with lower temperatures on Thursday.
The NWS also forecasts showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and into the early part of next week.
Is a tropical storm or hurricane coming toward Florida?
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a weakening frontal boundary near Florida or the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the systemdrifts northward or northeastward.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 20 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 60 percent.
Will a tropical system impact Florida over July 4th holiday weekend?
Tropical rain and wind impact risks between July 4 and July 7, 2025.
“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across West-Central Florida,” the Florida Department of Emergency Management said.
“Those heading to the beaches for the holiday weekend from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the Carolinas are urged to monitor the forecast, as there may be rough surf and rip currents and perhaps gusty winds should a tropical depression or storm develop,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, adding, “We feel the development window is from around July 4 to early next week.”
“From July 4 through early next week, conditions will favor rounds of drenching thunderstorms from parts of Florida to the coastal Carolinas, fueled by tropical moisture and lingering atmospheric instability,” AccuWeather said.
Where could potential tropical system go?
Tropical downpours expected across most of Florida July 3 through July 6, 2025.
The system of low pressure expected to develop over the holiday weekend is being squeezed between a high-pressure system moving east from the Ohio Valley and the Bermuda High over the central Atlantic, according to AccuWeather.
“Which high ends up exerting more influence may determine the track of the tropical area of interest, should it develop,” DaSilva said.
“If the Bermuda high is stronger, it could push the tropical feature close to the U.S. coast and potentially shorten the development window.
“On the other hand, should the high building in from the Midwest be stronger, it could shunt the tropical feature more offshore over the Atlantic, where it might have more time to evolve and strengthen.”
This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Will rain cancel fireworks in Sarasota and Manatee counties?