opened the week under pressure, shedding gains from last week’s rally that pushed prices up over 2%, as investors brace for a volatile stretch defined by high-stakes political and economic events. The yellow metal is now hovering near the $3,300 threshold, having fallen below its 50-day simple moving average, as renewed strength in the and rising bond yields weighed heavily on its momentum.
At the heart of this shift is a rekindled sense of unease surrounding US trade policy. President Donald Trump’s looming tariff deadline on July 9 has reintroduced a layer of geopolitical and economic tension that markets had largely discounted in recent months.
With formal letters expected to be sent out Monday to over a dozen nations failing to reach bilateral trade agreements with the U.S., the threat of tariffs as high as 70% has left investors scrambling for safe havens. Ironically, however, it is the dollar—not gold—that has absorbed the bulk of that demand for safety so far.
Trump’s rhetoric has moved well beyond traditional trade negotiation tactics. By targeting members of the BRICS alliance and proposing sweeping tariffs—many of which were initially delayed to allow for talks—Washington appears to be drawing a firmer line in the global trade sand.
For gold, this means its typical inverse correlation with the dollar may take a backseat to market sentiment that increasingly sees greenbacks as the more immediate hedge against uncertainty.
On the data front, a surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report dealt another blow to gold bulls. rose by 147,000 in June, easily surpassing the 110,000 forecast and even beating the revised 144,000 figure from May. The also fell unexpectedly to 4.1%.
These figures have cooled expectations of an imminent by the Federal Reserve. Bond yields moved higher in response, with the climbing to 4.33%, its highest level in weeks. For gold, which thrives in low-yield environments, this dynamic is an obvious drag.
Yet despite these headwinds, the underlying structural case for gold remains intact. The U.S. Congress’s narrow approval of Trump’s controversial tax-and-spending bill—passed with a razor-thin 218-214 margin—has sparked widespread concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability.
According to projections from the Congressional Budget Office, the legislation could add $3.4 trillion to the federal debt over the next decade, pushing the total beyond $36 trillion. For gold, this mounting debt pile represents a slow-burning fuse—one that could ultimately undermine confidence in U.S. monetary discipline and support higher prices for real assets.
Technically, the market picture has turned more cautious. The break below the 50-day SMA near $3,321 opens the door to further declines toward $3,297, a key Fibonacci retracement level from the April surge. Should this level give way, $3,248—the June monthly low—becomes the next downside target.
Conversely, a daily close back above the 21-day SMA would signal renewed bullish intent, potentially setting the stage for a rebound toward $3,377 and eventually $3,400—a psychological barrier that has capped rallies in recent months.
As investors await the release of the Fed’s June meeting minutes on Wednesday, the question isn’t just whether policymakers will cut rates, but when—and under what conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a cautious stance, insisting on clearer signs of labor market weakness or resumed disinflation before adjusting policy. Meanwhile, market pricing has pulled back from earlier bets of three cuts this year, now reflecting just two—and those are far from guaranteed.
Gold, then, finds itself at a familiar crossroads. It’s neither soaring nor collapsing, but instead absorbing the crosscurrents of fiscal risk, monetary indecision, and geopolitical friction.
The price action may remain choppy in the short term, but the broader trend still leans bullish—especially if the Trump administration proceeds with its tariff threats and fiscal expansion. In an increasingly bifurcated world, gold is not just a hedge against inflation or recession—it’s a hedge against the system itself.