As a travel reporter who specializes in airlines, I often get asked how to find the best deal on airfare. More than once, friends have asked whether there’s any benefit in buying a round-trip ticket versus two one-way tickets.
Unfortunately, airline pricing can be extremely opaque and unpredictable, and my advice usually boils down to: if it feels like a good deal, you should buy it.
“The main thing I would say is I think when it comes to, if folks feel frustrated when they’re buying airline tickets, there’s a good reason for that,” Lindsay Owens, executive director of Groundwork Collaborative, a Washington-based economic policy think tank, told me. “The airline industry is really the pioneer of some of the most ruthless and deceptive pricing practices. It’s not surprising that people feel really powerless and frustrated when they’re purchasing airline tickets.”
Owens is working on a book called “Gouged: The End of a Fair Price in America,” which includes research about airline pricing. She said airlines pioneered what we think of today as “dynamic pricing,” and the current, confusing hierarchy of airfares is by design.
So, are there deals to be had? Yes, but you may never be sure if you’re getting the best possible price.
Is it better to buy two one-way tickets or one round-trip flight? Who knows!
Round-trip vs. one-ways: Which is better?
One of the big “hacks” people ask me about is whether it’s better to buy a round-trip itinerary or two one-way tickets.
Friends who work in airline revenue management have told me that, in general, round-trip pricing can be a little lower, but it’s not always a guarantee.
“In general, you’re going to save money on roundtrips compared to two one-ways across the board,” Owens said.
For example, if you’re looking to buy a ticket from Washington to San Juan on Aug. 20, returning on Aug. 27, you’ll pay $20 less on JetBlue if you buy it as a round-trip itinerary, rather than as two one-way tickets. (At least at the time of writing, airline prices can change at any time.)
Airlines price one-way tickets higher for a variety of reasons, including wanting to make sure they maximize profits in case the traveler decides to take another airline for the return trip. Also, according to Owens’ research, carriers generally predict that one-way ticket purchasers are less price sensitive, either because they’re more likely to be traveling for business, or because they’re taking an emergency trip.
“International travel is where the most extreme price differentials between one-way and round trips remain,” she said. “Someone who’s booking a one-way flight internationally is a little different than someone who is booking a two-way flight internationally, the sense is they’re less price sensitive.”
Owens also pointed out that there can be a large disparity between carriers in their pricing strategies. Legacy airlines like American, Delta and United are more likely to provide some discounts on round-trip itineraries, while lower-cost carriers like Southwest, JetBlue, Breeze and others are more likely to price their tickets on a one-way basis.
How airlines set prices
If I could tell you this with any definitiveness, I’d be working in airline revenue management.
“It’s opaque because there’s really no pure logic behind it other than whatever competition is occurring today, so that’s a very hard thing to explain to people,” William J. McGee, senior fellow for aviation and travel at the American Economic Liberties Project, told me. “They are constantly gaming the system to see every last dollar they can get out of every flight. They price based on what they can get away with.”
According to McGee, before airlines were deregulated in 1978, they set airfares under supervision from the Civil Aeronautics Board based solely on the cost to operate the route. Since deregulation, airlines have had a lot more leeway in setting fares, which has made pricing much harder for travelers to predict.
People board their flight at Mesa Gateway Airport in Arizona.
One old rule of thumb for airlines was that a Saturday night stay at the destination often denoted a leisure trip, which unlocked cheaper fare buckets. But now, McGee said, that guidance seems to be losing its staying power, thanks partly to remote work.
“The lines have blurred more because, I think, quite frankly, Americans are working harder these days,” he said. “I’m not ready to say at this point that the Saturday night stayover discount is dead. It may not be as robust as it was.”
Airlines consider any number of factors when setting prices now, from day of the week and departure time to demand on the route and competition.
“Broadly speaking, what airlines are trying to do is charge the maximum amount they can to fill every flight,” Owens said.
Carriers often don’t release all the seats for sale at once, meaning even available inventory isn’t necessarily an indicator of where prices are likely to head on a given flight.
Last week’s Cruising Altitude: Why your flight sometimes feels too hot or too cold
Advice for booking
“The golden rule is be flexible,” McGee said. “If you tweak the day that you’re going, if you tweak the airport that you’re going to, and if you tweak the hour of the day, it can be remarkable how big the differences are.”
McGee and Owens both agreed that the best thing travelers can do to find a good deal on airfare is to shop around, and be willing to make small adjustments to their itinerary if they want to find the best possible price.
“To the extent that comparison shopping is possible, that’s always a good option. The best way to ensure the pricing is a combination of being able to be flexible about all aspects of your travel. Flexible departure day, flexible return day,” Owens said.
Zach Wichter is a travel reporter and writes the Cruising Altitude column for USA TODAY. He is based in New York and you can reach him at zwichter@usatoday.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: When to book one-way flights vs round-trips | Cruising Altitude