As parties battle for control, they turn to a controversial strategy: Redrawing electoral maps

WASHINGTON — Once a politically potent process that is typically conducted behind closed doors, congressional redistricting has been brought to the forefront as both Democrats and Republicans publicly consider redrawing district maps to give them leverage in next year’s midterm elections.

Each state is required to revise its congressional maps every 10 years after the U.S. Census releases the latest population data. Districts are determined by population size and states are instructed to draw boundaries that contain roughly the same number of residents and adhere to demographic requirements such as racial fairness.

The last census was conducted in 2020, with the final results available for states in 2021. After that, states were tasked with adjusting their district boundaries before the 2022 midterm elections — a lengthy process that is often subject to legal challenges and attempts by majority parties to draw maps that are more favorable to them.

The redistricting process typically only comes once a decade. But now, House Republicans and Democrats are looking at opportunities to alter the maps ahead of the 2026 midterm elections amid a tense battle for control in Washington.

While both parties have participated in partisan map-drawing in the past, it’s often done in private and disguised as neutral policy. But now, the process is being debated out in the open — and making parties susceptible to accusations of hypocrisy.

Trump demands changes to Texas map ahead of midterms

The Texas state legislature is set to meet this week to begin considering changes to its congressional district map after demands from President Donald Trump to configure as many as four or five additional Republican House seats next year.

“Texas will be the biggest one,” Trump said earlier this month when asked about the possibility of drawing more conservative-friendly districts. “And that’ll be five.”

The legislature is slated to meet for an emergency session to address the deadly floods earlier that hit the state earlier this month, but state Republicans have indicated they would also use the opportunity to push for updated congressional boundaries.

Republicans currently hold a 219-212 majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, a historically slim margin that has often made it difficult for the party to advance legislation even with a Republican trifecta. With control of the White House and Senate, Republicans have enjoyed total control of Washington — something that is at risk next November.

Historical trends show that the party of the sitting president typically loses control of the House during midterm elections. If Democrats manage to flip the House, it would deal a massive blow to Trump and likely thwart his agenda for his final two years.

As a result, Trump is pressing state Republican leaders to deliver additional seats through redistricting — which some Democratic strategists say is a sign of political desperation.

Trump’s latest approval ratings have taken a dip since taking office in January, falling to just 44.6% as of July 14, according to YouGov.

“If it’s anything like that on Election Day next year, Republicans are going to lose the House, and they’re smart enough to see that,” Brad Bannon, a Democratic strategist, told the Deseret News. “So what do they do? Try redistricting in Texas and try to create five new GOP seats.”

Democrats threaten retaliation — even at risk of hypocrisy

As Republicans prepare to go full steam ahead with plans to redraw Texas’ maps, Democrats have hinted at countering those efforts with some revisions of their own — even as they face their own historically low approval ratings.

“Two can play this game,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a post on X.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., has also toyed with the idea — including in states beyond California. The top House Democrat said he would engage in conversations with state delegations to “explore what the opportunities and possibilities are in order to make sure that the congressional map in 2026 is as fair as possible.”

Details on that are not yet available, but Jeffries made clear conversations were ongoing — possibly even in his home state of New York.

But Democratic retaliation could raise questions of hypocrisy as the party has repeatedly railed against their GOP counterparts with accusations Republicans were engaging in partisan gerrymandering to manipulate elections.

Walter Olson, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute specializing in constitutional studies, said it’s “long been considered suspect” to redraw boundaries in the middle of a census cycle. But now, the rhetoric around the topic is changing as political revenge becomes more mainstream, he said.

“I think it’s a piece of the whole change in national politics the last few years, in which people have dropped the feeling that they need to dress it up with attractive principles,” Olson told the Deseret News. “So much is now revenge rather than ‘I think I can prove that they violated the law.’ Now we cut directly to (a mindset of) ‘They tried to prosecute me, and I’m going to try to prosecute them.’”

But Democrats argue redistricting is fair game — especially if Republicans move forward with plans to adjust the Lone Star State.

“I think it’s fair for Democrats to retaliate in California or Illinois or wherever else they can,” Bannon said of Democratic efforts. “I think it’d be best if everybody leaves the districts the way they are. But you know, the reality is, if Texas wants to play games, I think Democrats should protect themselves any way they can.”

Challenges abound for Democratic redrawn maps

But those threats of retaliation may be easier said than done. Each state has different processes for adjusting congressional districts, and it may not be feasible to make major changes ahead of the 2026 elections.

California, for example, has strict laws on redistricting that could make it difficult for Democrats to adjust boundaries before next November. State law restricts mid-decade redistricting, meaning the state would likely need to pass a constitutional amendment to allow for any changes.

Even then, state law requires California to utilize an independent redistricting commission to draw maps, which requires a lengthy vetting process and is designed to ensure little political leverage.

Democrats could look at other states for new maps, but many have similar restrictions on mid-decade changes — possibly throwing a wrench in plans to alter electoral outcomes.

Republicans face other challenges — including voter backlash

But Republicans will likely face some challenges in Texas, too. Although they may not face as many legal or political obstacles, they are likely to experience some voter backlash — potentially putting their majority at risk anyway.

The state legislature sought to redraw the congressional map in 2011 to secure Republican-safe seats, only to watch those be flipped by Democrats in the so-called “blue wave” of 2018. As a result, state Republicans were more careful when they adjusted the map in 2021 to preserve the GOP stronghold districts.

Now, if Republicans attempt to drastically change the maps, they could face a similar defeat in 2026.

“My own term for it is the ‘tippy boat problem,’ because you can go only so far before you risk a way of capsizing a whole bunch of boats at once,” Olson said. “You’ve got to have a lot of boats to be tippy if you are to get away with this.”

That “tippy boat problem” goes by another term in political circles: Dummymandering. That’s what happened in 2018 when the once-safe seats slowly became less secure over time, giving Democrats an advantage.

Even if Republicans do hold on to those districts next year, the majority party will face an even bigger problem — and one that could haunt them for years to come.

“For the Republicans to get that many new seats, they would have to (create) districts that would become a national laughingstock and would manage to beat even some of the worst examples of gerrymandering that we’ve seen in the past,” Olson said. “They’ve got to worry about voter backlash. I would think gerrymandering is especially unpopular with educated voters and in suburbs — that covers a lot of Texas voters who the Republicans need to keep on their side.”