Two consultants and a local Democratic Party chair entertained a Capital Tiger Bay luncheon July 28 with insight into how Democrats can begin winning elections and regain some influence in Tallahassee.
Florida Democrats are mired in an astonishing slump: The last time they elected a governor, for example, “Friends” and “ER” had debuted on TV, Florida and Florida State played the infamous “Choke at Doak,” and – perhaps ominously – Republicans gained control of both houses of Congress in what was called the “Republican Revolution.”
Fast forward to today, and Democrats are plotting a comeback. Their century-long domination of Florida politics ended decades ago. And after forcing three statewide elections into recounts in 2018, they no longer hold any statewide offices and are in superminority status in the Legislature and Congressional delegation.
Beth Matuga of Hard Ask Consulting and Ashley Walker, a partner with the Mercury Public Affairs firm, each have more than 25 years experience in high-stakes Florida electoral battles, including House, Senate and presidential races. They were joined by Ryan Ray, current chair of the Leon County Democratic Executive Committee.
Their discussion laid out the political landscape for the 2026 election and how Democrats can provide Republicans some competition. The path to victory involves partisan voter registration, according to Walker, who worked on both of former President Barack Obama’s Florida campaigns.
Beth Matuga is with Hard Ask Consulting and has managed state House and Senate races
That is, they need to register voters into the Democratic Party and then persuade those voters to support Democratic candidates.
“It’s really hard to get voters to register but this is not a hard concept. It takes political will and it takes grit,” Walker said. The key when registering voters is to identify issues that affect their lives and propose solutions.
Walker, Matuga and Ray agreed Democrats have a major rebuilding effort to regain voters’ trust in their proposals.
Matuga: Democrats will need 25 years to rebuild in Florida
Before the turn of the last century, “Republicans, to their great credit, enacted a 25-year plan and it worked,” Matuga said. “So we should realistically be considering a 25-year plan to rebuild, not a 24-month plan.”
Ray said the messaging needs to be powerful enough to reactivate the Democratic Party’s historic base – that is, working people: “We’ve lost ground on cultural red issues. But I think talking and listening to the base is how we’re going to grow.”
In 26 of Florida’s 67 counties, or 38% of the state, Democrats have fewer voters than the GOP or the combined total of no-party-affiliated voters and those with minor parties.
To be sure, Democrats still hold influence in pockets of the state. Cities like Tallahassee, Gainesville, Jacksonville, Tampa and Orlando show up as blue dots in a sea of Republican red.
According to Walker, Democrats have been trying to find the “perfect candidate” the last few election cycles, one who is ideologically pure and has the money needed to run statewide.
Ashley Walker, on the left, is a partner with the lobbying campaign firm Mercury. Ryan Ray, right, is the chair of the Leon County Democratic Executive Committee
Even if that person could be found, they would still face a tough fight: There is no functioning Democratic Party in a third of the state, and Republicans have 1.3 million more registered voters.
Walker said the idea a perfect candidate making everything great for Democrats is just not “realistic because the fundamentals (of support) just isn’t there.”
Talk to party officials, elected officeholders, and grassroots activists and they mostly agree with what Matuga, Ray and Walker said.
Nikki Fried, the state chair and last Democrat to win a statewide race in 2018 when elected Commissioner of Agriculture, said Democrats need to break out of their insular bubble and talk to people who are not Democrats.
Fried launched a “Front Porch Swing” this summer, referring to low-key, no-publicity chats with voters. So far, she has made stops in rural areas of Clay, Lake, Hillsborough and Duval counties, asking people what’s on their minds.
Fried: To voters, ‘everything is about economics’
What she finds is “everything is about economics”: “Property insurance, auto insurance, everyday cost of living. These are policy issues that transcend partisan politics,” Fried said.
Fried thinks Democrats should focus on economic issues in 2026. Jayden D’Onofrio is a 20-year-old candidate in the Democratic primary for House District 102 in Broward County. Last year, D’Onofrio raised $1.3 million for the Future Florida Leaders political action committee to register voters.
Senate President Ben Albritton, left, talks with the Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried before Gov. Ron DeSantis holds a press conference in Tallahassee, Florida on Tuesday, March 25, 2025.
He faults the party for falling behind in voter registration, though he appreciates the grunt work Fried is doing to develop a winning message for 2026. Still, messaging will be worthless if Democrats don’t do partisan voter registration, he added.
“You have to connect the policy to the party,” D’Onofrio said. “The message is everything. I don’t think that Democrats in Florida are talking nearly enough about affordability and cost of living in this state.”
At the Tiger Bay luncheon, two-term Leon County Commissioner Rick Minor mingled with voters after the panel discussion.
Rick Minor
Minor worked on two Democratic gubernatorial campaigns and had a failed run for a state house seat. He said candidates win when they connect their message to voters’ real concerns.
This election cycle, Minor thinks what Congress is doing is a real concern for Florida voters: “The Big Beautiful Bill, the tariffs, the cuts to FEMA and the National Weather Service hit Floridians’ pocketbooks and create serious safety concerns for everyone, Republicans, NPAs, as well as Democrats,” Minor said.
He said Democrats can win in 2026 if they show that they are not just fighting for Democrats, “but for everyone who feels that the nation and state are moving in the wrong direction.”
James Call is a member of the USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at jcall@tallahassee.com and is on X as @CallTallahassee.
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: A Florida Democratic Party revival: Could it take 25 years?