Sept. 22 marked the first day of fall, a bold and colorful season here in East Tennessee.
As the landscape becomes a spectacle of changing color, tourists and locals alike rely on fall foliage maps to estimate when the region will see its peak color and where the best spots will be to go leaf-peeping.
It’s people like East Tennessee State University associate professor Andrew Joyner who put together fall foliage forecasts, and there’s a science to it (literally). Joyner is a climatologist with the ETSU Department of Geosciences who has been publishing fall foliage reports for the university since 2022.
“It’s just a beautiful time of the year and people get really excited about the leaf color and leaf-peeping,” Joyner said.
Each week throughout the fall season, Joyner and ETSU campus arborist Travis Watson release an Appalachian fall foliage report. Here’s how Joyner forecasts the changing leaves and what kind of autumn to expect in the Volunteer State in 2025.
How scientists forecast fall color
A few different weather factors determine how bold Tennessee’s fall colors appear, when peak season will be and how long the leaves hang onto the trees before dropping to the ground.
A primary component in determining the vibrancy of the fall foliage is current drought conditions. A season of drought can mean that leaf-peepers will see duller fall hues. Additionally, a drought can cause autumn leaves to fall to the ground prematurely, according to Joyner.
Drought is one of many “stressors” that can distort autumn’s full glory in Tennessee.
Too much rain can also make fall colors less than ideal. If there’s too much rain, pests and disease may grow on trees, causing issues.
The other major factor of fall colors? Summer temperatures and nighttime lows.
Extreme summer highs are another fall color “stressor.” High temperatures can mean shorter fall color displays, as, once again, trees drop their leaves earlier than average.
Along with that, nighttime temperatures, especially in late summer and early fall, are a huge environmental influence on how good fall color will look, according to Joyner.
“That’s really critical as well for fall leaf color and fall leaf timing,” the ETSU professor said.
Will there be good fall foliage in the Smoky Mountains in 2025?
This fall is expected to bring vibrant fall color, according to Joyner.
He credits the positive forecast to Tennessee’s ideal rainfall, cool nighttime lows and the impact of Hurricane Erin in August.
Though the major hurricane never made landfall in the United States, it did impact Tennessee’s weather. Erin brought East Tennessee a spout of cool, dry air due to the trough, a type of jet stream, according to Joyner and the National Weather Service.
“This has been one of the better years weather-wise, leading up to the fall leaf colors, that we’ve seen over the past several years,” Joyner said. “We had some dry spells, but not any kind of severe or extreme dry spell.”
Joyner’s forecast contradicts that of Accuweather, which said the fall colors might seem dull in 2025.
“I’d expect areas around Knoxville and toward the Smoky Mountains and Northeast Tennessee to be a very good color,” Joyner said.
Colors south of Knoxville, towards Chattanooga, might be duller this year, according to Joyner. That area had more drought stressors earlier in the year, plus the higher temperatures.
Are the leaves changing in Tennessee yet?
Yes! Leaves at the highest Tennessee elevations have already begun to shift into their gorgeous autumn show, according to LeConte Lodge. The hotel near the summit of Mount LeConte posts daily on its blog about the season’s change.
Photos from the lodge on Sept. 22 showed the first hints of red, orange and yellow peeking through the green, mountainous landscape.
Leaves will change color at the highest elevations first, then the color will spread slowly down the mountains into Gatlinburg, Knoxville and beyond.
When to see fall colors in Tennessee
Depending on where you’re headed to go leaf-peeping in East Tennessee, the “best” time to see fall color will vary. The region has diverse elevations, so the times of peak fall color will vary.
At high elevations in the Smokies, peak color will happen near the first week of October, according to Joyner. Lower elevations in the mountains should seek peak color around the second week in October.
Northeast Tennessee will have peak color in mid-October, according to Joyner. In Knoxville, it will take until around the third week of October to see peak color.
The fall colors in Great Smoky Mountains National Park inspires lots of visitors with cameras.
Allison Kiehl covers trending and breaking news from Knoxville for the Tennessee Connect Team. Email: allison.kiehl@knoxnews.com
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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Will Tennessee have a good fall colors in 2025? Here’s ETSU’s forecast