On the daily time frame, we see that the current market for the pair is slightly sideways. This means that no currency is dominating the market at this time. But of course, the market will continue to move and show its tendencies. The chart hasn’t changed much, but the market currently offers quite good opportunities.
Highlight Fundamental Analysis
Impact of the US JOLTS Job Openings Report (Wed, 03 September)
1. Background: US JOLTS Job Openings Weakens
The latest report for July 2025 showed a sharp drop to 7.18 million, well below expectations of 7.38 million. This marks the lowest level in nearly a year, with the job openings rate falling to 4.3%, the weakest since mid-2020.
The data signaled that the once-robust US labor market is losing momentum, raising speculation that the Federal Reserve could move toward sooner than expected.
2. Immediate Market Reaction
- : The USD weakened across the board as traders priced in a higher probability of Fed easing. Lower labor demand reduces inflationary risks, giving the Fed more room to cut rates.
- Global Bonds: US and global bond yields fell as investors rushed into safe-haven assets, anticipating looser monetary policy.
- Equities: US stocks saw a mild rebound, as weaker labor data suggested easier financing conditions ahead.
3. AUD/USD Impact
The Australian dollar (AUD) tends to react strongly to shifts in US monetary policy expectations and global risk sentiment.
Bullish Factors for AUD/USD:
- Weaker USD: The drop in job openings undermines the dollar, supporting AUD/USD upside.
- Commodity Link: Lower US yields generally support commodity-linked currencies like the AUD.
- Risk-On Sentiment: Softer US data sometimes encourages flows into higher-yielding assets, including AUD.
Bearish or Limiting Factors:
- RBA Policy Divergence: The Reserve Bank of Australia remains cautious, and if the Fed cuts aggressively while the RBA stays sidelined, AUD/USD gains may be limited to short-term rallies.
Technical Analysis
If we look at a lower time frame, we can see that the market has formed a trendline area that has been broken. The market has also retested the support trendline area that was formed.
And also, if we add several indicators such as EMA 200 and MACD, both indicators support the increase in AUD/USD. At least until the next resistance. You can take a buy position now, because the market has just retested the support area, and an engulfing candlestick has appeared. Or if you want to take a sell position, you can sell at the lowest support level.
Levels & Zones to trade AUD/USD
Support Zone
- Long-term support 0.61468 – 0.61291
- Medium-term support 0.64238 – 0.64062
Resistance Zone
- Long-term resistance 0.69099 – 0.69275
- Medium-term resistance 0.66728 – 0.66904