· MACD and RSI weaken positive momentum
· First support at 38.2% Fibonacci
AUD/USD is losing ground after the improvement toward a fresh four-month high of 0.6440 at the beginning of the week, showing the green light for a potential downside correction of the up leg 0.5913-0.6440.
The technical oscillators currently confirm the weak movement in the market. The MACD is moving lower above its trigger and zero lines, while the RSI is pointing downwards, approaching the neutral threshold of 50.
If the bears maintain control, the first support to look for would be the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward wave from 0.6940 to 0.5913 at 0.6305. Just below, the 50-day and 20-day simple moving averages — currently at 0.6290 and 0.6270, respectively — are poised for a potential test, before potentially declining to the 23.6% Fibonacci at 0.6155.
Alternatively, a rally above the 50.0% Fibonacci of 0.6425 and the latest peak of 0.6440 could encounter strong obstacles at the 200-day SMA at 0.6460 and the immediate resistance at 0.6470, achieved on December 9. A successful rally above these levels could send the bulls to the restrictive region of 0.6530-0.6550.
To sum up, AUD/USD is still lacking a clear trend in the short- and medium-term timeframes, with the key level being the 200-day SMA for confirmation of a possible bullish move. 