- Bitcoin consolidates between 83- 86k
- Trump notes big progress in trade talks with Japan
- Fed Chair Powell warns of a stagflation impact from tariffs
- Could the record M2 supply be the catalyst to push BTC to 90k?
- Bitcoin tests falling trendline resistance
trades modestly higher but continues to consolidate in a tight range between 86k and 83k as markets weigh up optimism surrounding trade negotiations against stagflation warnings from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
The cryptocurrency market cap has recovered from a low of $2.35 trillion in early April to $2.67 trillion at the time of writing. Sentiment has improved from extreme fear to a fear zone, which suggests that the correction from Liberation Day may be over. However, the market lacks a fresh catalyst to spur a recovery rally towards 90k. BTC has so far failed to meaningfully break out of the descending trendline dating back to the 109.5k record high in January.
Trade Headlines Offer Support
The cryptocurrency market is rising, with signs of possible progress in tariff negotiations with US trading partners, including Japan and China. Trump announced that “big progress” was achieved in a meeting with the Japanese trade delegation in Washington on Wednesday, in talks that marked the start of formal negotiations to reach a trade deal. Trump’s update comes amid reports that China could also be prepared to start negotiations with the US.
Fed Powell Warns of Stagflation
However, gains are being limited by concerns about the economic impact of trade tariffs on the US and global economies. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned yesterday that current tariffs could lead to sticky and slower economic growth, highlighting the Federal Reserve’s need to stick with its wait-and-see approach.
Could M2 Global Money Supply Be the Next Catalyst?
The total money supply from the US, Eurozone, Japan, and China has been rising since the start of the year and rose to $90.21 trillion in February. Bitcoin bull markets have typically coincided with the accelerated expansion of global liquidity, measured by M2, albeit with a lag period. For example, in October 2024, M2 supply reached $89.7 trillion, a new record, which was then followed by a record high in BTC a few months later.
prices also typically benefit from the increase in M2 supply and gold rose to a fresh record high of $3340 yesterday.
Could this be the catalyst that BTC requires to lift towards $90k?
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Bitcoin is attempting to break out of its falling trendline resistance dating back to 109.5 K. The price is between 86k and 83k and hovering around the 50 SMA. The RSI is neutral at 50.
Buyers will need to rise above 86.5k to stage a recovery to the 200 SMA at 87.4k. Above here, buyers could gain momentum towards 90k.
A break below 83k, the weekly low, and the falling trendline opens the door to 80k. Below here, sellers could look towards 74.4k.
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