- BTC hovers around 105k, in a tight range in June.
- Weak US data and few signs of a US-China trade deal keep sentiment fragile.
- What to expect from the NFP report.
- How could BTC react to the NFP report?
continues consolidating around the 105k level, some 5% down from the 111.9k record high. The process has traded in a tight range around 105k since the start of June.
The cryptocurrency market capitalisation has fallen 3% to $3.41 trillion, with total trading volume at $89 billion, lower than usual. The Fear and Greed gauge is neutral.
Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market are struggling amid a fragile market mood.
Concerns over the impact of Trump’s trade tariffs on the US economy are weighing on sentiment.
Data yesterday showed that US rose by just 37k, which is the weakest level of private job creation in two years. Meanwhile, the US unexpectedly contracted, indicating that Trump’s tariffs are negatively hurting the economy.
A lack of progress and no clear signal of a phone call between President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping, as trade negotiations stall between the two economic powers, adds to the cautious mood.
What to Expect From the NFP Report
While will be released today, the main focus will be on tomorrow’s report. The NFP is expected to show that job creation slowed considerably in June, with new job creation expected to cool to 130k from 177k in April.
is expected to hold at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to cool to 0.2% MoM, down from 0.3% MoM. According to the CME Fed watch tool, the market expects rates to remain at 4.25%—4.5% until at least the end of July. The majority of traders don’t expect a rate cut until September.
How Could the NFP Impact Bitcoin?
A stronger-than-forecast non-farm payroll report could lift the and put downward pressure on Bitcoin.
On the other hand, a weaker-than-expected report could raise concerns over the economy’s health in a Trump tariff era, but it could also raise the prospect of a rate cut, which could give Bitcoin a boost.
However, declining BTC ETF inflows and weakening momentum could mean that the upside near term remains capped at 110k.
BTC ETFs recorded $-157 million in net outflows last week, following six straight weeks of strong inflows. This week, inflows are weak at just $197 million, compared to $2.75 billion at the end of May.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
After pulling back from its record high of 111.9k, Bitcoin is consolidating around 105k. The price is capped on the upside by the 20 SMA and by the 23.6% Fib retracement of the 75k low and 112k high. The RSI is neutral.
A breakout trade will see buyers looking for a rise above the 20 SMA to target 110k ahead of 112k and fresh record highs.
Sellers will look for a break below the 103k June low and 23.6% Fib level. A break below here creates a lower low and brings 100k into focus.
Disclaimer: The content provided here is for informational purposes only and is not intended as personal investment advice and does not constitute a solicitation or invitation to engage in any financial transactions, investments, or related activities. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The financial products offered by the Company are complex and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. These products may not be suitable for all investors. Before engaging, you should consider whether you understand how these leveraged products work and whether you can afford the high risk of losing your money.