Let’s talk about what’s happening with right now because if you’ve been paying attention to the price action, the technical signals, and the broader macroeconomic environment, you’ll know that something’s off.
On the surface, may still appear strong at $111K, but beneath the surface, numerous cracks are beginning to show.
And if you’re long Bitcoin or considering jumping in, you really need to take a step back and assess what the charts, the options market, and the Fed are trying to tell you.
Because the signs? They’re not bullish; they’re super bearish.
Let’s break it down together.
Weekly Chart Bearish Divergence
You’ve probably heard of bearish divergence, but if you haven’t been watching Bitcoin’s weekly MACD, you’re missing one of the clearest signals of fading momentum I’ve seen in months.
Pull up the weekly chart. You’ll see Bitcoin printed a fresh high in mid-August above $124,000—a breakout that got people hyped. But here’s the thing: while price was pushing higher, the MACD was doing the opposite. 
What we’ve got here is a classic bearish divergence: higher highs in price, but lower highs in the MACD. That’s a huge red flag because when momentum can’t keep up with price, it often means you’re walking into a bull trap.
And sure enough, that trap seems to be springing shut. BTC has already fallen to around $108,700, its lowest level since early July, marking a 12% decline from the August peak.
The Daily Chart Technical Breakdown
Let’s zoom in on the daily chart, because the breakdown there is just as serious—if not worse.
Roughly a week ago, Bitcoin was holding a clean upward-sloping trendline stretching all the way back to April. It was also hugging the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), which had acted as dynamic support for months.
But now? Both of those have been decisively broken.
When a trendline that’s held for nearly 5 months gets taken out, and price slips below the 100-day SMA, the message is clear: bulls are losing control.
Worse still? There’s no strong support nearby. If Bitcoin doesn’t reclaim the 100-day SMA quickly, we could see a fast flush toward $101K, where the 200-day SMA awaits.
Options Market Shows Defensive Tilt
Still not convinced Bitcoin is shifting bearish?
Take a look at the crypto options market, where big money is placing its bets, and lately, they’re not betting on the upside.
According to the latest data from CoinDesk, over $14.6 billion in BTC and options are set to expire, and a huge part of that positioning is in Bitcoin puts, particularly around the $108K–$112K strike zone.
This kind of defensive skew tells us one thing: Traders are no longer confident in upside, which is why they’re actively buying downside protection.
When that much money flows into protective puts, it means smart money is bracing for potential further drawdowns. And when the price starts hovering near those key strike zones—like it is now around $111K—you start seeing gamma pressure intensify.
Translation? If BTC keeps slipping, it could accelerate into a steeper drop as options dealers hedge their books.
The Fed Is Turning Off the Tap
Now, let’s zoom out and look at the bigger picture: the macro.
You probably already know that Bitcoin’s explosive post-COVID rally was largely fueled by liquidity: money printing, stimulus, zero interest rates, and a speculative appetite that made crypto look irresistible.
But today? That narrative’s reversed.
According to this Yahoo Finance analysis, Bitcoin is facing renewed risk of a major correction (up to 65%) as the Federal Reserve drains liquidity from the system.
As liquidity dries up, speculative assets like Bitcoin start to lose their bid. That “easy money” that helped fuel the last leg of the bull run? It’s gone. And without it, Bitcoin might have a hard time justifying its sky-high valuation, especially when momentum and volume are fading.
A Confluence of Risk Factors
Let’s tie all of this together for a moment. Here’s what we’re looking at:
Regardless of how you slice it, this isn’t a market that’s screaming “buy the dip.” It’s a market that’s warning you to step back and reassess.
However, if you’ve been in crypto long enough, you know that these setups don’t always collapse right away. Still, when the stars align like this, they rarely resolve to the upside.
If BTC can’t reclaim the 100-day moving average soon, we’re likely to see increased selling pressure. If you’re still long BTC here, I’d be very careful. At minimum, I’d consider:
- Tightening stops
- Taking partial profits
- Avoiding new longs until BTC reclaims key levels
If you’re thinking of entering fresh shorts, the risk-reward is starting to tilt in your favor, especially if BTC fails to reclaim the daily chart’s upward-sloping trendline.
Personally? I’m staying defensive. The macro isn’t supportive, the charts are rolling over, and the options market is screaming caution.
Here’s what I’ll be watching closely over the next 2–3 weeks:
- Can BTC reclaim the 100-day moving average? If it does, maybe the breakdown was a fakeout. But if it keeps failing there, lower prices look more likely.
- Do options traders roll or unwind their puts post-expiry? If the defensive skew remains, that confirms risk-off sentiment.
- How does the Fed communicate at the next meeting? Any hint of easing might help BTC bounce, but don’t bet on it.
- Does MACD on the weekly continue falling? A confirmed bearish crossover would seal the deal for a deeper retracement.
Look, I’m not telling you to sell everything and run for the hills. I’m telling you to be aware of what the data is saying. Right now, the market is sending a clear message: the party might be over, at least for now.
Bitcoin has had an incredible run, but now the momentum is fading, the technicals are breaking down, and the macro is becoming unfavorable. And when you combine all that with clear signs of institutional hedging, you have to ask: Is this just a dip or the start of something bigger?
Right now, I’m leaning toward the latter. And if I’m wrong? No problem. I’ll re-evaluate if the charts change. But for now, I’m staying on the sidelines and watching very closely for signs that this sell-off isn’t over.