lost its upside momentum in Q3 after peaking above $120K in July, leaving traders on edge as we approach the bearish phase of the 4-year halving cycle • However, with increasing institutional adoption as the asset matures, the 4-year cycle may no longer be as relevant as it once was.
Bitcoin Key Points
- Bitcoin lost its upside momentum in Q3 after peaking above $120K in July, leaving traders on edge as we approach the bearish phase of the 4-year halving cycle.
- However, with increasing institutional adoption as the asset matures, the 4-year cycle may no longer be as relevant as it once was.
- As long as Bitcoin holds above the 50-week EMA near $100K, the path of least resistance will remain to the topside for a potential rally toward $119K (127.2%) and $131K (161.8%).
Bitcoin Q3 2025 in Review
In our Bitcoin Q3 outlook, we noted that “the path of least resistance will remain to the topside for a potential rally to the Fibonacci extensions of this year’s drop near $119K (127.2%) and $131K (161.8%).” As it turns out, we didn’t have to wait long for Bitcoin to hit that initial target in mid-July, but the cryptocurrency lost its momentum, spending the rest of the quarter consolidating in the $110Ks.
Below, we break down the outlook for the king of the cryptocurrencies and highlight relevant fundamental and technical trends that will drive Bitcoin in the last quarter of the year.
Bitcoin Q4 2025 Outlook
Many analysts have identified a reliable 4-year cycle centered around the Bitcoin Halving that suggests we may be nearing the end of a nearly 3-year bullish period.
For the uninitiated, the Bitcoin Halving is when the reward for mining new bitcoins is cut in half. This reduces the rate at which new bitcoins are created and thus lowers the total supply of new bitcoins coming into the market.
The halving tends to increase scarcity and historically has led to an increase in the price of bitcoin, though of course it’s not guaranteed to do so in the future. As any Bitcoin bull will tell you, the April 2024 halving took the “inflation rate” of Bitcoin’s supply to below 1% per year, less than half of gold’s annual inflation rate.
Looking at my favorite chart, which I colloquially call “The Only Bitcoin Chart You’ll Ever Need™”, previous Bitcoin halvings have marked the transition from the (yellow) post-bottom recovery rally stage to the (green) full-blown bull market stage that we’ve been in since April of last year.
Projecting a similar time-based cycle forward from the halving suggests that we may be nearing the peak of the cycle near the start of Q4, though with increasing institutional adoption and general maturation of the asset class, some analysts are skeptical that the 4-year cycle will remain valid moving forward:
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
While the simple 4-year cycle may be waving a yellow flag for Q4, there are both macroeconomic and “fundamental” bullish arguments for Bitcoin that suggest we may not have seen the top for this cycle yet (or even if the concept of large boom-bust cycles is still relevant).
From a macroeconomic perspective, the monetary policy backdrop remains generally supportive, though we may be nearing peak easing globally. As the chart below shows, global central banks have still been generally, but we have seen that trend stalling in recent months, with major central banks like the ECB expected to stop cutting (but not necessarily raise) interest rates in the coming months:
Source: MacroMicro
Looking ahead, the risk that central banks shift focus back to the risks of re-accelerating inflation may develop into a potential headwind for Bitcoin in the latter half of the year, especially with fiscal policy (government spending and tax cuts) becoming more accommodative across the globe.
In that vein, the growth rate of fiat money in the financial system has turned to a more stimulative direction. So-called “M2” is the central bank’s estimate of the total money supply, including all the cash people have on hand, plus all the money deposited in checking accounts, savings accounts, and other short-term saving vehicles such as certificates of deposit (CDs).
After falling to around 1% in the first half of 2024, the year-over-year growth in global money supply has re-accelerated over the last few months and is holding steady at 6% as we go to press: 
Source: TradingView, StoneX.
One of the key narratives driving Bitcoin’s value is the idea of “hard money” or a hedge against fiat currency debasement, and as long as the global supply of money continues to increase, that theme could put a floor under the cryptocurrency’s price.
Beyond broad macroeconomic dynamics, we’ve also increasingly seen large financial entities accumulating Bitcoin at an increasing rate. In addition to the growing popularity of firms accumulating the cryptocurrency as a treasury asset, we’ve also seen impressive inflows from “TradFi” institutional investors buying spot Bitcoin ETFs, with total inflows into Bitcoin ETFs now nearing $60B:
Source: Farside Investors
As long as we continue to see the secular trend of “TradFi” ETF purchases continuing in the coming months, downside dips in Bitcoin may be more limited than they have in the past.
Is the 4-Year Cycle Dead? Why Bitcoin May Not Have Topped Yet
Over a longer-term horizon, there are plenty of indicators that suggest we may still be some distance away, in both time and price, from a cycle top in Bitcoin.
From a valuation perspective, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-score, which compares the current price to the aggregate cost paid for all outstanding Bitcoin, sits near 2.0, up from the
However, as the chart below shows, previous cycle tops haven’t formed until this indicator reaches levels above 7, suggesting that we may still have further to rally before reaching a cycle top (though given Bitcoin’s limited historic record, it’s important to remember that the current cycle may not necessarily match previous patterns):
Source: Bitcoin Magazine. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
A final consideration is the behavior of long-term holders. As we’ve noted in previous outlooks, those who have held their Bitcoin for more than a year, almost tautologically, are not trying to make a “quick buck” off the cryptocurrency; rather they are more likely to be “true believers” or “HODLers” who are unlikely to sell unless they’re sitting on a truly massive gain.
As the chart below shows, the proportion of Bitcoin that has been held for at least a year started 2024 at record highs above 70% before seeing a notable decline to below 61% as of writing. While that -9% drop may seem relatively small, it represents nearly 1.8M in marginal Bitcoin supply, weighing on the Bitcoin price.
This measure, by definition, moves relatively slowly, but any renewed selling from longer-term “HODLers” may offset inflows into ETFs as we move into the fourth quarter of this year:
Source: MacroMicro.me
Of course, the catalysts we highlight in this report may not play out as expected – and to some extent, they may already be priced in, so readers should always exercise caution when trading Bitcoin and other cryptoassets. As ever, it will be critical to monitor a broad swath of macroeconomic and crypto-specific metrics as the year develops.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – BTC/USD Weekly Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX
Looking at the longer-term chart, Bitcoin continues to consolidate in the $110K range as we go to press. The cryptocurrency has seen volatility die down after an impressive Q2 rally off Q1’s -30%+ pullback. Crucially, even in the depths of that pullback, Bitcoin managed to hold above the 50-week EMA, a dynamic support level that has consistently put a floor under prices for more than two years.
At the same time, the 14-week RSI has consistently held above 45, providing a potential leading/confirming measure for the uptrend’s strength as we head into Q4.
Moving forward, as long as the cryptocurrency holds above the 50-week EMA (currently near $100K), the path of least resistance will remain to the topside for a potential rally to the Fibonacci extensions of this year’s drop near $119K (127.2%) and $131K (161.8%). Only a break back below the 50-day EMA and horizontal support near $74K would flip the longer-term trend to neutral.