- BTC rebounds to 113k while the crypto market cap rises 1.2%
- Nvidia beat forecasts, calming AI bubble worries
- US core PCE is expected to rise to 2.9% YoY, with Fed rate bets cuts in focus
- Rotation into ETH could limit BTC upside
- BTC technical analysis
is rebounding on Thursday, gaining 1.7% and pushing back above 113k. For a change, BTC is slightly outperforming the broader crypto market, which trades 1.2% higher at $3.91 trillion. Although the largest cryptocurrency was still underperforming, is up 5%, while Cronos has overshadowed most tokens in recent sessions, rising 55% over the past 24 hours and 137% in just 7 days.
Bitcoin has recovered from a 7-week low hit earlier in the week as risk sentiment shows signs of improving, with the also reaching a fresh record high on Wednesday. BTC remains some 10% from its record high of 124.4k.
Nvidia Beats Forecasts, Calming AI Bubble Worries
Nvidia (NASDAQ:) earnings beat expectations, posting EPS of $1.05 on revenue of $46.74 billion, marking the ninth straight quarter of revenue growth above 50%. Given that Nvidia is the AI bellwether, its results can impact broader risk sentiment. The close correlation between tech and crypto often comes into focus around the NVDA earnings. Nerves over the AI trade being overvalued are calming, allowing attention to turn once again to the Fed.
US Core PCE Data in Focus Along With Fed Rate Cut Expectations
The market is pricing in an 87% chance that the Fed will cut rates in the September meeting, broadly unchanged following Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s dovish lean in his speech at last week. The next key catalyst will be tomorrow’s release, which could help guide rate cut bets. Expectations are for core PCE to rise modestly to 2.9% YoY. The data comes after cooler-than-expected last week, but hotter-than-forecast . Should PC, the federal reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, come in hotter than expected, this could lower expectations and exert downward pressure on BTC.
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Rotation Into ETH Could Limit BTC Upside
Institutional demand has remained steady this week, with SoSoValue data showing that BTC ETFs recorded $81.25 million in net inflows on Wednesday, extending its three-day inflow streak. Should inflows continue to build, BTC price could be supported higher.
However, BTC ETFs continue to be outpaced by demand for ETH. ETH ETFs reported $307 million in net inflows on Wednesday. Demand for is growing not just among institutions, but also among whales. Last week, a long-term BTC whale swapped 22400 BTC for ETH. The move pushed ETH to a record high while pulling BTC lower. Heavy rotation into ETH could leave BTC vulnerable to further declines.
BTC Technical Analysis
BTC failed to recover above the multi-month rising trendline resistance and rebounded 5% lower, closing below the 100 SMA and dropping to a low of 108.5k. The price has rebounded from this low, recovering above 110k and rising to 113k at the time of writing. The RSI is below 50 but points higher, suggesting that bearish momentum is fading.
Should bulls successfully defend the 100 SMA, BTC could extend its recovery to 116.6k, the 50 SMA, and last week’s high. Above here, 120k comes into focus again, ahead of the record high at 124.4k.
A break below the 100 SMA could see sellers extend the decline towards 105k, the 38.2% Fib level ahead of 103k the 200 SMA.
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