- BTC rises towards 109k, recovering from 106.8k.
- The US International Trade Court blocked Trump’s tariffs.
- BTC ETFs outperform Gold.
- BTC outperforms the Nasdaq, Gold & USD.
- Seasonality is less supportive in June.
has recovered from its 106.8k low yesterday, rising towards 109k. The largest cryptocurrency trades 1.5% higher, boosted by favourable trade headlines and persistent ETF demand.
Bitcoin, the broader cryptocurrency market, and risk assets are rising on Tuesday following a ruling by the US International Trade Court, which blocked Trump’s trade tariffs. The court ruled that Trump overstepped his powers by using emergency laws to justify the bulk of his trade levies.
The market has reacted positively to the news. However, these latest developments add to the uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs. The White House has appealed the decision, which could ultimately be ruled on by the Supreme Court.
Sentiment Analysis
While headline risk remains elevated, sentiment analysis is favourable towards Bitcoin. The Fear and Greed Index has hovered around the Greed level (close to 70) for a third week. This level is considered to be supportive of a healthy, balanced uptrend, with no signs of overheating.
Another tool for gauging sentiment is BTC ETF flows, which have been persistent over recent weeks. On Wednesday, BTC ETFs recorded the tenth straight day of inflows, putting BTC ETF inflows in May at $6.2 billion, the second highest month on record and only slightly below the record $6.49 billion of inflows in November.
BTC & Gold ETF Divergence
Over the past 5 weeks, BTC ETFs have recorded $9 billion in inflows. This is in sharp contrast to Gold ETFs (NYSE:), which have recorded $2.8 billion in outflows across the same period. This divergence comes as Gold has fallen away from its $3500 record high amid easing trade tensions, which has lowered demand for traditional havens. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s status as an alternative store of value is growing at the same time that worries over the US budget deficit and fiscal position mount.
There is growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a hedge, not a risk asset. Over the past month, Bitcoin’s correlation with the tech-heavy , the , and has been low, supporting the view that the cryptocurrency is viewed as a hedge.
While Gold is still the better performer across 2025 year to date, up 25% compared to Bitcoin’s 15%, the picture is vastly different over the past month, with BTC up 15% compared to Gold’s 0.4% rise, or even the past two months, with BTC up 30% compared to Gold’s 5% gains, which suggests that the tide could be turning and new trends forming.
Seasonality Is Unsupportive in June
Persistent ETF demand, the macro backdrop, and regulatory developments support BTC booking further gains. However, seasonality is less favourable. June is typically the second-worst month for BTC performance.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
The price is consolidating below 110k in a tight range around 107k to 109k. However, it remains in a rising channel dating back to the start of April, favoring the bulls. A rise above 110k could extend the rally towards the 120k psychological level.
Sellers could be encouraged by the loss of momentum as the price tests the lower bounds of the rising channel. A break below here could open the door to 105k support and 100k.
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