As cool air moves into Michigan this week, signs of fall are already starting to pop up, and the first frost or freeze can’t be far off.
Parts of the upper Midwest may see frost in late August as temperatures could bottom out in the 30s in some spots after the weekend of Aug. 23.
The National Weather Service in Minnesota is calling the upcoming chilly weather “an appetizer for the upcoming fall season.”
Even some “lake-effect rain showers” — the milder cousin to the more familiar lake-effect snow — could dampen the shores of some of the Great Lakes.
The chill will be most notable in the Midwest over the weekend before spreading into the Northeast by early next week, forecasters said.
“What may be the most substantial cool air outbreak since last spring is expected to sweep across the Midwest from Friday (Aug. 22) through Sunday (Aug. 24),” said AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski in an online report.
He added “at the peak of this outbreak, temperatures may resemble those typically experienced in late September or early October.”
Behind the cold front, cooler, drier air will sweep across a large portion of the country, Weather.com reported: “Temperatures are expected to run up to 25 degrees below average from the Plains to the Midwest — and even reach into parts of the South,” noted Weather.com meteorologist Jennifer Gray.
By Monday, Aug. 25, highs in Chicago and Detroit may struggle to reach 70 degrees, compared to historical averages in the lower 80s for this time in August, Sosnowski said.
On average, Michigan begins to see freezing temperatures in mid-September to early November, though temperatures may get cooler earlier.
The National Weather Service’s temperature 6-10 day outlook forecasts Michigan seeing below-normal temperatures, with a strong chance of cooler temperatures across central to southwest Michigan.
This weekend, Aug. 23-24, statewide highs rare expected to range from the 60s to 80s with overnight temperatures dropping to the lower 50s and upper 40s. Ironwood, in the western UP, is expected to see the coolest low at 45 degrees on Sunday, Aug. 24.
Temperature outlook for Aug. 27-31, with below normal temperatures covering much of the Midwest and Northeast regions of the U.S.
The Upper Peninsula and northern Michigan typically see their first freezes — temperatures at or below 32 degrees — in early September, according to the Midwestern Regional Climate Center.
In 2024, the earliest freeze was on Oct. 4 across Ontonagon, Gogebic, Baraga and Iron counties in the western UP.
In the Lower Peninsula, the average first freeze dates range from late September to late October, with last year’s earliest freeze landing on Oct. 5 in Missaukee, Otsego, Crawford and Oscoda counties.
Here’s a list of the average first freeze dates by county to predict the 2025 growing season in Michigan:
How cool will it be in Michigan this weekend?
Here are the forecast temperature highs and lows across Michigan this weekend, Aug. 23-24, from the NWS:
Detroit: On Aug. 23 there is a high of 83 and low of 61; on Aug. 24 there is a high of 78 and low of 56.
Lansing: On Aug. 23 there is a high of 82 and low of 57; on Aug. 24 there is a high of 74 and low of 52.
Grand Rapids: On Aug. 23 there is a high of 80 and low of 59; on Aug. 24 there is a high of 72 and low of 55.
Coldwater: On Aug. 23 there is a high of 81 and low of 56; on Aug. 24 there is a high of 73 and low of 52.
Kalamzoo: On Aug. 23 there is a high of 80 and low of 58; on Aug. 24 there is a high of 72 and low of 52.
Gaylord: On Aug. 23 there is a high of 74 and low of 53; on Aug. 24 there is a high of 65 and low of 48.
Alpena: On Aug. 23 there is a high of 77 and low of 56; on Aug. 24 there is a high of 70 and low of 53.
Marquette: On Aug. 23 there is a high of 69 and low of 55; on Aug. 24 there is a high of 62 and low of 51.
Sault Ste. Maire: On Aug. 23 there is a high of 72 and low of 57; on Aug. 24 there is a high of 62 and low of 52.
Ironwood: On Aug. 23 there is a high of 64 and low of 48; on Aug. 24 there is a high of 58 and low of 45.
Is there a difference between a frost and a freeze?
Yes. According to the Old Farmers’ Almanac, frost forms at temperatures near or above 32 degrees, while a freeze is when temperatures drop to or below 32 degrees.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac provides first and last frost dates for select cities across the state.
When is the official start to fall 2025?
Monday, Sept., 22, 2025, is the first day of fall, marking the autumnal equinox in the northern hemisphere, when the sun is directly above the earth’s equator.
When will the first freezing temperature reach northern Michigan?
Average first freeze dates across Michigan ranging from late September (dark to light purple shading) and late October (light blue shading).
The Midwestern Regional Climate Center, a program between the National Centers for Environmental Information and Purdue University, provides climate data with interactive maps for the Midwest.
The freeze data shows average first and last freeze dates for the spring and fall seasons recorded from 1950 to 2024.
Here are the average first freeze dates, including the freeze dates for 2024, beginning with northern Michigan:
Emmet County
Average first freeze at 32 degrees: Oct. 9
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 10
Cheboygan County
Average first freeze: Oct. 3
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 10
Presque Isle County
Average first freeze: Oct. 10
2024 first freeze date: Oct 17
Charlevoix County
Average first freeze: Oct. 9
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 10
Antrim County
Average first freeze: Oct. 5
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 10
Otsego County
Average first freeze: Sept. 24
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 5
Montmorency County
Average first freeze: Sept. 28
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 9
Alpena County
Average first freeze: Oct. 9
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Leelanau County
Average first freeze: Oct. 19
2024 first freeze date: Nov. 2
Benzie County
Average first freez: Oct. 15
2024 first freeze date: Nov. 2
Grand Traverse County
Average first freeze: Oct. 8
2024 first freeze date: Nov. 2
Kalkaska County
Average first freeze: Sept. 28
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 9
Crawford County
Average first freeze: Sept. 24
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 5
Oscoda County
Average first freeze: Sept. 27
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 5
Alcona County
Average first freeze: Oct. 6
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Manistee County
Average first freeze: Oct. 12
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 27
Wexford County
Average first freeze: Oct. 1
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 10
Missaukee County
Average first freeze: Sept. 23
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 5
Roscommon County
Average first freeze: Sept. 27
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 9
Ogemaw County
Average first freeze: Sept. 27
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 9
Iosco County
Average first freeze: Oct. 4
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 9
Mason County
Average first freeze: Oct. 11
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 27
Lake County
Average first freeze: Oct. 1
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 9
Osceola County
Average first freeze: Sept. 26
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 10
Clare County
Average first freeze: Sept. 30
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 10
Gladwin County
Average first freeze: Oct. 4
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 10
Arenac County
Average first freeze: Oct. 4
2024 first freeze: Oct. 16
When will the first fall freeze occur in southeast Michigan?
Here are the freeze dates for counties in the Thumb area:
Huron County
Average first freeze: Oct. 17
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 27
Tuscola County
Average first freeze: Oct. 10
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Sanilac County
Average first freeze: Oct. 17
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 27
Lapeer County
Average first freeze: Oct. 13
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
St. Clair County
Average first freeze: Oct. 22
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 27
Macomb County
Average first freeze: Oct. 22
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 27
Wayne County
Average first freeze: Oct. 19
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 27
Oakland County
Average first freeze: Oct. 16
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 27
Livingston County
Average first freeze: Oct. 13
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Washtenaw County
Average first freeze: Oct. 14
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Monroe County
Average first freeze: Oct. 21
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 27
When will central Michigan see temperatures at or below 32 degrees?
Here are the freeze dates for counties in central Michigan:
Bay County
Average first freeze: Oct. 13
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Midland County
Average first freeze: Oct. 9
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 10
Isabella County
Average first freeze: Oct. 8
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Mecosta County
Average first freeze: Oct. 4
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 9
Montcalm County
Average first freeze: Oct. 8
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Gratiot County
Average first freeze: Oct. 12
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Saginaw County
Average first freeze: Oct. 12
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Genesee County
Average first freeze: Oct. 13
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Shiawassee County
Average first freeze: Oct. 11
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 18
Ingham County
Average first freeze: Oct. 11
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Eaton County
Average first freeze: Oct. 8
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Clinton County
Average first freeze: Oct. 11
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 18
Livingston County
Average first freeze: Oct. 13
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
When will the first freeze occur in the Grand Rapids area?
Here are the freeze dates for counties in southwestern Michigan:
Newaygo County
Average first freeze: Oct. 3
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Oceana County:
Average first freeze: Oct. 7
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Muskegon County
Average first freeze: Oct. 11
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Ottawa County
Average first freeze: Oct. 15
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 27
Kent Count
Average first freeze: Oct. 10
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Barry County
Average first freeze: Oct. 9
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Allegan County
Average first freeze: Oct. 14
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 27
In southern Michigan, when will the first freeze happen?
Here are the freeze dates for counties in southern Michigan:
Van Buren County
Average first freeze: Oct. 14
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Kalamazoo County
Average first freeze: Oct. 13
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Calhoun County
Average first freeze: Oct. 9
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Berrien County
Average first freeze: Oct. 18
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 27
Cass County
Average first freeze: Oct. 12
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
St. Joseph County
Average first freeze: Oct. 11
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Branch County
Average first freeze: Oct. 11
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 27
Hillsdale County
Average first freeze: Oct. 9
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 18
Lenawee County
Average first freeze: Oct. 13
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Jackson County
Average first freeze: Oct. 11
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
When will the Upper Peninsula see freezing temperatures this fall?
Here are the freeze dates for counties in the Upper Peninsula:
Keweenaw County
Average first freeze: Oct. 10
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 9
Houghton County
Average first freeze: Sept. 26
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 9
Ontonagon County
Average first freeze: Sept. 23
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 4
Gogebic County
Average first freeze: Sept. 23
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 4
Baraga County
Average first freeze: Sept. 23
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 4
Iron County
Average first freeze: Sept. 17
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 4
Marquette County
Average first freeze: Sept. 30
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 9
Dickinson County
Average first freeze: Sept. 25
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 8
Alger County
Average first freeze: Oct. 5
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 10
Delta County
Average first freeze: Oct. 7
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 10
Menominee County
Average first freeze: Sept. 29
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 17
Schoolcraft County
Average first freeze: Oct 6
2024 first freeze date: Nov. 2
Luce County
Average first freeze: Sept. 29
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 10
Chippewa County
Average first freeze: Oct. 6
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 10
Mackinac County
Average first freeze: Oct. 5
2024 first freeze date: Oct. 10
Contact Sarah Moore @ smoore@lsj.com
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Weekend will be chilly in Michigan. What forecasters are saying