Republican Jack Ciattrelli and Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill will face off in November in the governor’s race. (Photos by Reena Rose Sibayan/Amanda Brown)
A new poll of the New Jersey governor’s race finds Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat, leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by eight points, with 16% of respondents still undecided.
The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of likely voters has Sherrill ahead of Ciattarelli 45% to 37%. The two are squaring off in November to succeed two-term Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat who can’t seek a third term in the fall.
“While Republicans have been narrowing the gap, there are still more Democrats than Republicans in the state, and Ciattarelli needs to start pulling in more independents and Democrats if he wants to win,” said Dan Cassino, a Fairleigh Dickinson professor and the poll’s director.
A Rutgers-Eagleton poll from earlier this month gave Sherrill a 20-point lead.
Republicans have viewed polls of the race with skepticism, noting that polls released in the weeks before the 2021 governor’s race — when Ciattarelli tried to unseat Murphy — showed Murphy with big leads, though his winning margin ended up being just three points.
Results from the new Fairleigh Dickinson poll reveal why Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman, has been intent on shifting focus to local issues, despite Sherrill’s push to tie him to President Donald Trump.
After respondents were initially asked which candidate they preferred, they were randomly assigned questions about either local or national issues. Respondents were then asked again about their vote choice.
Those in the local framing group answered questions about NJ Transit, energy policy, farmland development, flood prevention infrastructure, the state’s response to extreme weather, and rising energy bills. The national framing group was asked about Trump, including his job approval, the federal budget bill, and immigration enforcement.
The results showed notable shifts among independents. Questions about local issues helped Ciattarelli by 7% by moving some voters who had been unsure into his corner (there was no significant change among Democrats or Republicans).
National issues decreased Ciattarelli’s support among independents by 4%, with those voters shifting from supporting him to saying they were unsure, though reminding respondents about national issues strengthened his support among Republicans.
“The more nationalized this race is, the worse Ciattarelli does overall,” Cassino said.
Ciattarelli has mocked Sherrill for her frequent Trump-bashing on the campaign trail, but Cassino said this tactic has “no downside” for Sherrill. A Rutgers-Eagleton poll from earlier this month put Trump’s approval rating among New Jerseyans at 30%.
“Ciattarelli is walking a fine line with Trump: he needs to consolidate Trump supporters, but do so without making the race too national, or turning off voters who don’t like what’s happening in Washington,” Cassino said.
The poll surveyed 806 registered New Jersey voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.
SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX