Both the Democratic and Republican primaries for U.S. Senate are wide open, according to a recent statewide poll, which found many Texas voters are either undecided or would support candidates who haven’t actually entered the race.
On the GOP side, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn leads Attorney General Ken Paxton, 32% to 26%, with another 29% of registered voters having yet to decide who they will vote for, a poll released Friday by Texas Public Opinion Research found.
The survey’s hypothetical Democratic primary, meanwhile, was headlined by former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, both of whom have been speculated as possible candidates but have not announced they are seeking the nomination. O’Rourke led with 27% of the hypothetical vote and Crockett followed with 26%, well ahead of the two leading candidates in the race, former Dallas congressman Colin Allred and state Rep. James Talarico.
Much of the attention so far has focused on the Republican primary, where until last month, every poll had shown Cornyn trailing his challenger. The survey results released Friday were the first that showed Cornyn with a lead of multiple percentage points over Paxton — a further sign the margins have narrowed in a race that Paxton once comfortably led. Both candidates are vying for the endorsement of President Donald Trump, whose support could prove decisive for either Republican.
“We have a fluid, single-digit race on the Republican side and both of these candidates will be duking it out for some time,” said Slingshot Strategies pollster Evan Roth Smith, who conducted the survey for the nonpartisan Texas Public Opinion Research, polling 843 registered voters from Aug. 27 to Aug. 29.
In the hypothetical Democratic matchup, O’Rourke and Crockett each received roughly double the support of Allred, a former NFL linebacker and the 2024 Democratic Senate nominee, who won 13% of the vote. Seven percent of respondents said they’d vote for Talarico, an Austin Democrat who launched his Senate bid Tuesday.
O’Rourke said in a July interview on CNN that he didn’t yet know if he was planning to run for Senate. He previously said he would consider running if it was “what the people of Texas want.”
Crockett, a second-term Dallas Democrat, said she would consider running for Senate if she sees data that shows she would be competitive in a general election, The Dallas Morning News reported earlier this week. For now, Crockett said she is focused on selecting which Dallas-area district to run in, after Republican lawmakers passed a new redistricting map that pushed her into a neighboring district.
The poll found that Talarico was the least known of the current or prospective Democratic candidates surveyed, with 61% of voters saying they had never heard of him. Only 21% of respondents said they had never heard of Allred, whose name recognition from his 2024 run may contribute to his lead over Talarico in the poll, Smith said.
Eighteen percent of Democrats said they were undecided in the hypothetical primary. This means about three-quarters of voters polled were either undecided or said they would vote for someone who hadn’t entered the race, which could allow a number of candidates to take control of the up-for-grabs electorate.
Democratic voters in Texas are looking for a candidate who is a fighter, Smith said, adding that O’Rourke and Crockett have already proven themselves to fit the label. If they don’t enter the field, Democrats already in the race will have to make their case to voters that they can wage a vigorous and energetic general election campaign, he said.
“You have a Democratic primary that feels wide open with a lot of different possibilities,” Smith said.
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