In our last update from five weeks ago, see here, when was trading at around $3820, we shared our primary Elliott Wave (EW) Principle view, where we expected a 3rd wave top (red Wave-iii) at ideally around $4535, the 161.8% extension, a drop to ~$3610 for red W-iv, the 100.0% extension, and a final rally to at least $5100, the 200.0% extension, while acknowledging that
“the ideal red W-v target at the red 200.0% extension of roughly $5100 is significantly below the breakout/symmetry target of about $6140. See Figure 2 below. Therefore, we may see an extended fifth wave, which is quite common for cryptocurrencies.“
Fast forward, the red W-iii peaked at $4792 (the 176.4% extension). Ether then dropped to $4067 for the red W-iv (the 123.6% extension) and reached $4955 for the red W-v, very close to the 200.0% extension. See Figure 1 below. Therefore, the Elliott Wave (EW) was once again able to forecast each move, i.e., wave, confirming its reliability for traders and investors. Without it, one is essentially flying blind.
Figure 1. Our preferred short-term EW count for Ethereum.
However, now we need to focus on the “we may see an extended fifth wave, which is quite common for cryptocurrencies,” part.
Specifically, the rally from the red W-iv low to the $4955 high was probably (green) W-1 of W-v. The fifth wave seems to be setting up for a subdividing extension. That indicates the September 1 low at $4212 was green W-2, and now the green W-3, aiming for $5655+, is in progress. Furthermore, to validate our Bullish EWP thesis, we require an additional objective tool. We added black dotted downtrend lines to the following technical indicators: the RSI14, CMF, and MACD. In June-July, these indicators then broke above their downtrend lines, marked by black arrows, signifying the start of a new uptrend. Once the CMF broke higher in early July, Ethereum gained nearly 100%.
Today, the RSI14 broke above its current downtrend line, marked by a blue arrow, and we are waiting for the MACD and CMF to follow suit. When they do, we expect the red W-v to be in full swing, targeting at least $6000 (the 200.0% extension of the green W-1), but more likely closer to $6140, possibly as high as $9000. See Figure 2 below.
Figure 2. Our preferred long-term EW count for Ethereum.