“False fall,” the temporary period of cooler temperatures in late summer, is officially over and summer now surges into its final stretch.
After a short-lived break from the heat, with temperatures dipping into the mid-70s and low 80s last week, the “prolonged” meteorological phenomenon has concluded, announced the National Weather Service on Sept. 10.
“At some point in the near future, autumn will be here for real, but for now, summer is going to have its way with us,” wrote the weather service in a post to X.
According to National Weather Service Meteorologist Ryan Husted, Middle Tennessee is in for an extended stretch of hot and dry weather. Here’s what to know.
Nashville, Middle Tennessee to experience extended period of hot, dry weather heading into fall, forecasters say
Middle Tennessee will experience above normal temperatures and below average precipitation from mid to later September.
According to the 6-10 day temperature outlook (Sept. 17-21), Middle Tennessee has a 70-80% chance for above normal temperatures.
“It’s not too often that we see this obvious of a signal, so our confidence is high in the warm/hot weather sticking around for a while,” said Husted in an email to the Tennessean on Sept. 12.
While the forecast for the 8-14 day outlook (Sept. 19-25) isn’t as pronounced, there is still a 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures.
Middle Tennessee will experience above normal temperatures and below average precipitation from mid to later September.
As far as precipitation, the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks both call for a 33-40% chance “below normal” rainfall.
“It’s not as confident of a signal as the temperatures,” added Husted. “However, based on how things are trending, I would plan for minimal rainfall.”
During this time of year, Nashville typically experiences high temperatures ranging from 91- 84 F, with an average monthly precipitation of about 1.38 inches, according to the weather service.
When is the first day of fall?
Fall officially begins in the Northern Hemisphere on Monday, Sept. 22, 2025, at 2:19 p.m. EDT, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac.
The autumnal equinox is an astronomical event that signals the start of fall. It occurs in September for the Northern Hemisphere and in March for the Southern Hemisphere, marking the moment when day and night are nearly equal in length.
More: When will leaves change colors in Tennessee? What the fall foliage forecast shows
Climate outlook predicts lingering heat through fall in Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee will experience a hotter than average fall this season. According to the Climate Prediction Center, counties in Eastern Middle Tennessee will experience higher temperatures than those in western counties.
Even as fall settles in, the heat is expected to linger.
From September through November, Middle Tennessee faces a 33–50% probability of experiencing above-normal temperatures, according to the Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook.
The outlook also indicates that counties in Eastern Middle Tennessee are likely to see higher temperatures than those in the western part of the region.
According to weather service data, September typically sees average highs around 73 F, accompanied by roughly 3.80 inches of rainfall.
By October, temperatures drop to an average of 62 F, with precipitation totaling about 3.36 inches. November brings even cooler conditions, averaging 50 F, while rainfall slightly increases to approximately 3.86 inches.
Diana Leyva covers trending news and service journalism for the Tennessean. Contact her at Dleyva@gannett.com or follow her on X at @_leyvadiana
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Nashville area weather: What comes after ‘false fall’? Summer sequel