Global markets remain driven by softer US data, which has weighed on the amid rising expectations for a potential in September. Adding to the dollar’s pressure, optimistic headlines around a US-China trade agreement have lifted global risk sentiment.
United States – Dollar Falls on Weak Inflation
The (DXY) broke below the key 99.00 support level, hitting its lowest point in several days as Treasury yields declined.
Today’s spotlight:
These data points will be critical in confirming the inflation and labor market trajectory.
Continued softness = stronger case for a Fed rate cut in September = more downside for the dollar.
Outlook:
A weaker-than-expected reading could push DXY below 98.70, targeting 98.30 next.
EUR/USD – Gains Extend Toward Key Resistance
The continued to gain against the dollar, approaching the psychological 1.1500 barrier, buoyed by ongoing USD weakness.
Focus shifts to upcoming ECB speakers:
- Isabel Schnabel
- Luis de Guindos
- Frank Elderson
Outlook:
A decisive break above 1.1500 could open the door toward 1.1560.
GBP/USD – All Eyes on UK Macro Data
remained resilient above 1.3500 following a rebound from Tuesday’s dip, with a heavy UK data docket ahead:
Key releases include:
- Monthly
- Industrial & Manufacturing Production
- Trade Balance
- RICS House Price Index
Outlook:
- Positive data → push toward 1.3580–1.3620
- Weak data → downside risk toward 1.3450
USD/JPY – Struggling to Sustain Gains
The pair reversed Tuesday’s gains, dropping back toward 144.30.
Markets await:
- Foreign bond investment data
Outlook:
Unless demand for USD recovers, bearish momentum could drag the pair toward 143.80.
AUD/USD – Yearly Highs Amid Volatility
The climbed to a new 2025 high near 0.6550 before pulling back toward the 0.6500 mark.
Key drivers ahead:
- Melbourne Institute
- Speech from RBA Governor Jacobs
Outlook:
Bullish momentum remains intact unless 0.6480 is broken.
Oil (WTI) – Sharp Rise on Trade Optimism
West Texas Intermediate surged above $68.00, reaching a two-month high.
Supportive catalysts:
- Progress in US-China trade talks
- Drop in US inventories per latest reports
Outlook:
Stability above $68.00 could pave the way for a move toward $69.20–70.00.
Gold – Rally Continues on Dollar Weakness
climbed steadily to hit a multi-day high near $3360/oz, supported by:
- Safe-haven flows
- USD softness
- Inflation concerns
Outlook:
A confirmed break above $3365 could trigger a move toward $3385–3400.
Silver – Testing Key Support Level
pulled back sharply toward the $36.00 mark, now testing a significant technical support zone.
Outlook:
- A break below $36.00 opens downside toward $35.20
- A bounce may send prices back to $37.00
Client Trade Ideas for Today
Asset | Trade Idea | Rationale |
EUR/USD | Buy on break above 1.1500 | Ongoing USD weakness, ECB optimism |
GBP/USD | Conditional buy on positive data | Busy UK data day, upside potential |
USD/JPY | Sell from 144.80 (SL: 145.30) | Dollar weakness, safe-haven yen demand |
XAU/USD | Buy above 3365 | Weak USD, inflation concerns |
WTI Crude | Buy from 67.80 | Trade optimism, bullish momentum |
AUD/USD | Buy from 0.6480 | Inflation outlook, positive sentiment |
This article was written by the author with assistance from language generation tools to support structure and clarity. All insights and opinions are entirely the author’s own.