advanced to 3395.00 and continues to target the 3430.00 region, driven by the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut the benchmark rate at its September 17 meeting.
Last week, Jerome made it clear that the economic assessment and the balance of risks might require a correction in monetary policy. As the labor market remains stable, the Fed has room to act cautiously. Result: investors read this as negative for the dollar and are already pricing in an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point cut.
Furthermore, gold finds support in the geopolitical scenario: even after the summit between Putin and Trump, nothing concrete was decided on a ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. This uncertainty strengthens the demand for safe-haven assets.
Market Sentiment
The market has started a correction:
According to the CFTC, net speculative positions fell from 229.5k to 212.6k contracts.
Among them, “bulls” still dominate: 177.561k versus 35.803k “bears.”
Buyers reduced 10.575k contracts, while sellers added 1.893k.
In other words, the long-term bias remains bullish, but there is room for profit-taking.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, the price is approaching the resistance at 3430.00.
If it breaks, the path opens to 3500.00, and by surpassing this level, the asset could seek new all-time highs towards 3600.00.
If it reverses at 3430.00, it could pull back to the base of the channel at 3260.00, and if it loses this floor, it could target the 3177.00–3121.00 region.
Resistance levels: 3432.00, 3500.00, 3600.00
Support levels: 3263.00, 3177.00, 3121.00
Possible Trading Scenarios
Sell:
Entry: from 3432.00
Target: 3263.00
Stop Loss: 3485.00
Estimated timeframe: 9–12 days
Buy:
Entry: above 3485.00
Target: 3600.00
Stop Loss: 3435.00
Gold is at one of those decision points that mark cycles. If it breaks 3500.00, the story changes, and new records come onto the radar. If it pulls back, it could open an opportunity for cheaper entries.