After reviewing the recent price action of the across multiple timeframes, it appears that the current range-bound movement—between $3356 and $3291—could lead to a weekly opening gap early next week. Meanwhile, the has begun recovering from its July 2025 low of $96. With the Trump trade tariff deadline approaching on August 1, 2025, a breakout move is likely in early August. The index could potentially reclaim the $103 level during the first half of the month.
Undoubtedly, gold futures could continue to teeter inside a range-bound zone as any breakout out of this range could attract sellers above $3370 while the buyers are trying to support at $3270 as the greenback fell after the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting showed a majority of policymakers still supported cutting interest rates this year.
However, Fed members were split over the timing of the cuts, as a majority of policymakers expressed concerns about the inflationary impact of Trump’s trade tariffs.
Gold was also pressured by easing safe-haven demand, amid cooling military tensions in the Middle East through the second half of June.
Technical Levels to Watch
In the daily chart, gold futures are still trying to hold the immediate support at the 50 DMA at $3339 while continuing to face stiff resistance at the 20 DMA at $3351 after the formation of a bearish crossover with a downward move by the 9 DMA, which has come below the 20 DMA.
On Friday, gold futures have stuck between the immediate resistance at the 20 DMA and the immediate support at the 9 DMA, which ensures a gap up or gap down on the opening of the next week that depends on this week’s closing level.
Secondly, US dollar Index futures indicate that the US dollar is on a recovery path since the beginning of this month, which makes the situation in favor of gold bears to remain aggressive on Friday.
I anticipate that if the gold futures close this week below the significant support at $3291, next week, a gap-down will emerge on the next weekly opening of the gold futures.
Inversely, if the gold futures close this week above the significant resistance at $3376, next week will start with a gap-up opening.
Undoubtedly, gold futures will likely remain volatile up to July 17, 2025, before the beginning of the next directional path after August 1, 2025.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold futures at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.