The gold futures market is currently in a highly sensitive stage where short-term momentum, as measured by the 30-day cycle, is aligning with the exhaustion phase of the longer-term 360-day master cycle. This convergence of time and price makes the present structure particularly important for traders, as it represents the transition between distribution and accumulation phases.
peaked at 3824.6, just under the Sell 1 Daily at 3804 and Sell 2 Daily at 3840, validating these levels as key resistance zones. The rejection from that area initiated a corrective decline that has brought prices back to the 3759 handle, testing support levels defined by the VC PMI Daily Buy 1 at 3741 and Buy 2 at 3714. These levels overlap with the weekly mean of 3704, creating a tight cluster of demand zones where the market is currently oscillating.
From the perspective of the 30-day cycle, the recent rally off the low at 3660.5 confirmed the trough of that cycle and initiated a bullish leg that carried gold nearly 165 points higher. However, that momentum has now stalled, and the cycle appears to be rolling over as prices retreat back toward the mean. This reflects the distribution side of the 30-day pattern, where early buyers at the cycle low take profits into resistance zones, while new demand has yet to firmly assert itself.
More importantly, this short-term corrective activity is occurring into the window of the 360-day cycle low, projected around September 28, 2025. Historically, the 360-day cycle in gold marks critical turning points, often aligning with major lows that precede powerful multi-month rallies. The fact that the current 30-day decline is synchronizing into this long-term cycle window dramatically increases the probability that the weakness we are seeing is not the start of a new bear trend, but rather the final phase of a corrective washout before a significant reversion upward.
The support cluster between 3704 (VC PMI Weekly mean), 3665 (Weekly Buy 1), and 3621 (Weekly Buy 2) is therefore of critical importance. Should prices hold within or slightly below this range, it would mark the ideal structural base for the 360-day cycle low to form. A sustained reversal from this window would validate the cycle bottom and trigger a long-term bullish breakout, with initial upside targets back toward 3777 (VC PMI Daily mean), 3804 (Sell 1 Daily), and 3840 (Sell 2 Daily). Beyond that, Square of 9 projections and Fibonacci harmonics extend the upside potential toward the 3878–3904 region as the next expansion phase.
Conversely, if the market fails to hold above 3621, the 360-day low may extend deeper, possibly testing the 3600 handle before the cycle bottom fully matures. While this would not necessarily negate the longer-term bullish outlook, it would delay the reversion process and likely shake out weak hands before the larger rally develops.
Strategic Implications
- Short-term (30-day cycle): Momentum has peaked, and gold is in a corrective downswing toward support.
- Long-term (360-day cycle): The market is approaching a major low window, which historically precedes powerful reversions.
- Critical zone: 3704–3621 is the area to watch for stabilization. A successful defense here signals the launchpad for the next bullish phase.
- Upside potential: Once confirmed, reversion targets extend back to 3804–3840, then higher into 3878–3904.
- Risk management: A sustained break under 3621 raises the probability of a delayed 360-day low, with downside risk toward 3600 before the cycle reverses.
In summary: Gold is entering a rare convergence where the 30-day distribution phase is feeding directly into the 360-day low. This setup historically produces a price inversion—short-term weakness resolving into a long-term bullish breakout.
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