As the Senate continues to work through the House-passed megabill, the public’s opinion of the legislation is starting to shape — and so far it’s not looking good for Republicans.
A series of polls released in recent days have revealed the bill, which would be President Donald Trump’s signature piece of legislation in his second term’s first year, is broadly unpopular except with self-proclaimed MAGA Republicans.
The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”, which narrowly passed the House late last month, includes tax changes and Medicaid cuts, two key issues that are still being debated by the Senate as it rushes to meet Trump’s July 4 deadline.
Here are three takeaways from the recent surveys:
The bill is largely unpopular
Three separate polls released in the last week showed that more Americans who are aware of the legislation do not support it, though the split remains largely along party lines.
A Washington Post-Ipsos poll released Tuesday found that 42 percent of Americans are not in favor of the bill, while 23 percent support it and 34 percent say they have no opinion. A KFF Health Tracking poll also found more adults dislike the bill than support it, with 64 percent of adults having an unfavorable view of the legislation and 35 percent having a favorable view.
Meanwhile, a Quinnipiac University poll released last week found that 53 percent of voters oppose the bill, with 27 percent supporting and 20 percent not offering an opinion.
Separated along party lines, a majority of Republicans who have an opinion support the legislation, but not by the margin in which Democrats oppose it. Across the three polls, 49 percent to 61 percent of Republicans support the bill. Among Democrats, however, 70 percent to 90 percent are against it.
The KFF Health Tracking poll asked Republicans and Republican-leaning independents if they are a “supporter of the MAGA movement,” which revealed a further split in the polling.
Among self-professed MAGA Republicans, support for the bill went up to 72 percent, while Republicans who did not identify as part of the MAGA movement held an unfavorable view of the bill at a 2-to-1 margin, 66 percent to 33 percent.
Medicaid work requirements have support; cuts do not
Since the House passed the megabill, Democrats have worked to define the bill by its reductions to Medicaid spending. The fresh round of polling shows their messaging may be having some success.
In the Quinnipiac poll, just 10 percent of voters said federal funding to Medicaid should decrease, and 47 percent of voters surveyed favored increased funding for the program. When asked about the bill’s Medicaid cuts, 67 percent of adults surveyed in the KFF poll said the decrease in funding left them with an unfavorable view of the bill.
But work requirements — one of the changes to Medicaid championed by Republicans — has broad support.
In The Washington Post-Ipsos poll, 52 percent of adults said they support “requiring low-income childless adults to prove they are working or disabled to get health insurance through Medicaid,” compared with 33 percent who oppose the requirement (15 percent had no opinion).
KFF’s poll showed even greater support for the work requirements, at 68 percent, including half of Democrats and nine in 10 Republicans.
However, when respondents were informed of some of the barriers that work requirements create — like filing paperwork to prove eligibility — support dropped in both polls.
Many adults are still unaware of the bill
Across all of the polls, most Americans still haven’t heard of Republicans’ premier piece of legislation, which gives both parties the opportunity to shift public opinion with their messaging.
In The Washington Post-Ipsos poll, 66 percent of adults said they had heard little or nothing at all about the bill, compared with 34 percent who had heard a great deal or a good amount. In KFF’s poll, 50 percent of adults said they had heard little or nothing at all about the legislation.
In the Quinnipiac poll, a majority of voters were aware of the bill, with 36 percent saying they have heard or read “a lot” and 32 percent saying they have heard or read “some.” Fourteen percent said they had heard or read “not too much” and 18 percent said “not much at all.”
The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 1,265 self-identified registered voters from June 5-9, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percent. The Washington Post-Ipsos poll was conducted from June 6-10 and surveyed 1,167 U.S. adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent. The KFF Health Tracking poll was conducted June 4-8 and surveyed 1,321 U.S. adults, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.