As a coastal storm moves its way up the East Coast, forecasters at the National Weather Service in Wakefield are warning of high winds and moderate flooding through the rest of the weekend.
“For today and especially tonight, the area of most concern would be in that far southeast (area of the region), and to a lesser extent, Hampton Roads, Tidewater and northeast North Carolina, maybe even portion to the Eastern Shore,” said Allison Mitchell, a forecaster for the Wakefield office.
Wakefield meteorologists said Saturday moderate to heavy rainfall will start in the evening, and high winds will develop after midnight. The highest gusts will be closest to the coast, reaching 50-60 mph. Mitchell said outages and downed limbs are a possibility, and wave heights Sunday morning could reach 12-14 feet from Cape Charles to Cape Henry.
King — or especially high — tides will continue through the weekend. Those conditions will exacerbate coastal flooding impacts from the storm, meteorologists said. “Moderate to major” tidal flooding is expected Sunday and into Monday. Low-lying property including homes, businesses and certain roadways may be inundated with flood waters, and “significant” dune and beach erosion is likely. Residents should not walk or drive through flood water.
Nancy Barnhardt, another forecaster at the Wakefield office, said the severity of flooding depends on several factors, such as wind direction, wind speed and the time heavy gusts hit.
“As of right now, for Sewells Point, we are predicting 6½ feet there,” Barnhardt said. “That, right now, is in the major category. Lynnhaven is 6.3 (feet) and Yorktown is 5.8, which are both well into the major category, for these areas, we are likely going to see inundation on Sunday of 2-3 feet.”
In Hampton Roads, current forecasts show 1½ to 2 inches of rain through Tuesday morning. Toward the Outer Banks, rain is expected to be much heavier, with upwards of 3 inches possible, but exact totals remain unclear.
“One potential scenario is that a heavier band of rain gets hung up on our area, and that’s how we’ll end up with higher totals versus what some of the models are depicting,” Mitchell said. “(Other models are) having that heavier rain, moving out quicker and returning back to scattered, isolated light showers by tomorrow evening. That variation in scenarios is where we’re getting some differences in the rainfall forecast.”
Eliza Noe, eliza.noe@virginiamedia.com