WORCESTER — The latest homeless numbers are stark in Worcester County. In fact, they’re record-breaking.
The Central Massachusetts Housing Alliance annual homeless count released on Wednesday, June 4, showed an all-time high of 3,110 people are homeless in the county, a 20% increase over the 2024 count (2,600) and an eye-popping 93% jump over 2023 (1,607).
Of the 3,110 homeless, 41% (1,262) are children and 52% (1,629) are Black, African American or African.
The report noted another record that was shattered. On average, a household in Worcester County is homeless for more than half a year (213 days).
“That’s longer than we’ve ever seen,” said Jack Moran, director of research and data analysis at the Central Massachusetts Housing Alliance.
Longer than the average of 207 days during the COVID-19 pandemic, said Moran, when policies focused on the homeless remaining in shelters to help prevent viral spread.
Not exact science
The alliance’s “point in time” homeless count is not exact science. It’s a snapshot because the count is taken one day out of the year, this year on Jan. 29. The figures were reported to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
The count is reliable, said Leah Bradley, chief executive officer of the Central Massachusetts Housing Alliance. However, it doesn’t capture every homeless person, she said, because Worcester County is a large land area and it’s possible not to count homeless who sleep in cars versus those living in known encampments.
There’s a lot of data in this year’s report, but two numbers stand out as primary reasons for the record-high homeless number.
One is the county’s rental vacancy rate of 2.9% — around 1% in Worcester — that is below the 5% generally needed to keep rents somewhat affordable, said Bradley.
Second, the county’s market rate for an apartment is $2,205, according to Zillow figures, double that of a decade ago. A rent that is unaffordable for many in the county, because it takes an annual income of $86,000 to make the monthly payment. However, the county’s median renter household income is $51,300, according to the U.S. Census.
Build more housing
As Bradley sees it, there’s an urgent need to build more affordable housing to fix the homeless crisis.
“The lack of housing that’s being built, so the supply is not matching the demand right now,” she said. “That’s the biggest thing, because that creates the high median rent and the low vacancy rate, and those are the two indicators that we know are the causes of homelessness.”
When Housing Secretary Edward M. Augustus Jr. was in Worcester last month to tout what the Healey administration is doing to boost supply, he mentioned the Affordable Homes Act, which Healey signed into law last year, that allocated $5.3 billion to boost affordable housing.
Zoning changes, streamlined permitting and state subsidies were also cited by Augustus as ways the state is upping housing supply.
It won’t be easy to meet the demand. Massachusetts needs to build 222,000 new homes by 2035 to fill a statewide supply gap, according to a Housing Advisory Committee formed by Healey’s administration.
Even if those units are built, there are more than 400,000 families who qualify for affordable housing but can’t access it, according to a study by the Massachusetts Area Planning Council and Housing Navigator Massachusetts.
More multifamily housing is needed in smaller communities, said Bradley. She also noted the “not in my backyard” opposition is an impediment to expanding affordable housing supply.
Jack Moran, director of research and data analysis at the Central Massachusetts Housing Alliance, presents findings of a recent homelessness count with the organization’s CEO Leah Bradley.
More seniors homeless
Bradley is particularly concerned about the rising number of older people who are homeless.
Fifty-one people over 64 are in this year’s count, including 32 in shelters and five on the streets. Some are homeless because they can’t afford to make repairs so their homes are condemned. Others can’t make rent, so they’re evicted and live in cars.
It’s not just Worcester that sees the homeless crisis. Smaller towns are also feeling the impact, a situation Bradley said is “most concerning.” Sturbridge had 14 homeless individuals without shelter and Webster had eight, according to this year’s count. Some are living in parking lots, others in tents, said Bradley.
Of the 221 homeless in the county who are “unsheltered,” according to this year’s report, the largest communities dominated the numbers: 120 in Worcester and 56 in Fitchburg.
Meanwhile, 53% of renter households in the county spend more than 30% of their income on rent. That’s roughly 58,000 households, and the danger is if something unexpected happens, like losing a job, that family could be evicted and become homeless.
Eviction numbers in the report show 2,800 new cases filed in the past 12 months.
More homeless families
One number that stands out in the report is families with children identified as homeless: a total of 2,368 people, a 19% increase over last year and an alarming 146% spike compared to two years ago (963).
Housing advocates say permanent housing with the necessary social supports is needed to break the cycle of homelessness. Bradley stressed that if the focus remains on shelters, the cycle will continue.
A data point in this year’s report could support that thinking. For the past two years, 24% of the county’s homeless residents have found permanent housing. That compares to 43% in 2016.
Besides more affordable housing, Bradley said changes to local zoning regulations and streamlined permitting to cut costs for developers will boost housing supply.
She cited Austin, the Texas state capital with nearly 1 million residents, as a prime example. Zoning changes in building heights and parking requirements cut rents by 22% in that city, according to Bradley.
While Bradley praised Worcester for its inclusionary zoning and housing trust fund to increase housing stock, she said surrounding towns have to do their part. “If we don’t address this, it’s going to get worse, We need housing of all types.”
When asked where the money will come from to swell the amount of affordable housing, Bradley said local, state and federal governments must pitch in.
Funds are coming from other sources, and Bradley noted the Determination of Need Program at UMass Memorial Health. Whenever the hospital system builds a capital project, Bradley said, UMass has to set aside money for community needs. Families who pay 30% to 50% of their incomes for housing and experience a financial crisis have benefited from the UMass program to pay rent, said Bradley.
While the state has programs to build more housing, Bradley said, it can’t control interest rates and home prices. In the interim, Bradley said, “We need to help people stay in their housing. We need more subsidized housing and prevention programs so people are not leaving their housing.”
Contact Henry Schwan at henry.schwan@telegram.com. Follow him on X: @henrytelegram.
This article originally appeared on Telegram & Gazette: Homeless numbers hit all-time high in Worcester County with 20% spike