Hotter and drier days ahead?

Minnesota’s summer outlook: Hotter and drier days ahead? originally appeared on Bring Me The News.

Meteorological summer began June 1, and the summer solstice is just a couple of weeks away on June 20. Spring was warm and wet for the Twin Cities, with warm conditions statewide, but the spring precipitation picture was more mixed.

So far, June is running above normal on temperatures and a little below normal on rainfall, believe it or not. What might we expect the rest of this month and for the summer season?

The official forecast for June from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) calls for slightly better odds of above-normal (versus below) temperatures.

Their temperature probability pattern reflects what we’ve seen already: a series of upper-level lows (pools of cool air aloft) that dive into the central U.S., giving us some crummy periods with heat on either end of it. This pattern has led to cool, wet conditions already in the south-central U.S. On balance, this pattern has made us average out above normal for temperatures, but the same amount of precip farther south is unusual for this point in the summer, making their temps average below normal.

Most of our medium- to long-range models agree with the CPC assessment. The consensus is for slightly above-normal June temperatures and slightly below-normal June precipitation—essentially what we’ve had this first week already.

The CPC forecast calls for equal chances of below/above precipitation for the month of June.

Summer appears to amplify the pattern we’re seeing a bit more. There’s a higher likelihood overall of summer temperatures averaging above normal and precipitation averaging below normal than in June itself.

The official CPC forecast calls for slightly better odds of above-normal summer temperatures but also slightly higher odds of below-normal summer precipitation, with the ‘bull’s eye’ of highest odds not far to our west.

The North American Multi-Model Forecast Ensembles (NMME) is more bullish on temperature. These are several different forecast models used by NOAA for North America, averaged together (ensembles).

The NMME calls for nearly 80% odds of above-normal summer temperatures and slightly below-normal summer precipitation.

The 80% stood out to me because when we look at climate data alone, and not forecast models, about 70% to 80% of summers since the year 2000 have averaged above normal (1991–2020 average) for temperatures. So, without looking at anything, you could make a good bet on summers being warmer than normal. Winter gets a lot of attention because it is our fastest-warming season (with more warm extremes), but summer is more consistent (fewer extremes, but more consistently above the normals).

On a statewide basis, too, 68% of summers for the last quarter-century have been above normal.

Consistent summer warmth and volatile winters, with warm winters outpacing cooler winters, is a telltale sign of climate change for our region.

This story was originally reported by Bring Me The News on Jun 8, 2025, where it first appeared.