The deadly Texas floods that occurred over the July Fourth Weekend happened fast and in the dark of night. Two variables that only made a horrific situation even worse. The images and stories out of Texas are heartbreaking to say the least and they have many of us scratching our heads and wondering how this could have happened.
You can read the latest on the situation in Texas here, but we will try to break down the details of what unfolded in the wee hours of Friday morning and give you details on the bleak forecast, showing more rain to come.
Weather Factors At Play That Contributed To Texas Flooding
There were several weather features at work during the week leading up to the catastrophic flooding that all worked in tandem to create this nightmare situation.
1 – Upper level disturbance: There was an upper level disturbance that pushed into the Hill Country from west Texas. This area of low pressure brought with it deep moisture, which set the stage for a very saturated environment to produce heavy downpours and torrential rain.
2 – Remnants from Barry: While the tropical moisture from Barry isn’t 100% to blame for what happened in Texas, the remnant low definitely played a big part. Barry was a short-lived tropical system that made landfall in Mexico on Sunday, June 29th. The storm’s lingering moisture has been pumping into the southern U.S. ever since and has helped enhance the instability across the Lone Star state.
3 – Low level jet stream: This is a weather feature located a few thousand feet above the ground that was aimed right at the Hill Country. This weather setup allowed for a constant stream of moisture to feed into the area as well. This also enhanced the rainfall and moisture in the area.
How Torrential Rain And Geography Created Chaos
As the rain stalled over central Texas, the rate of rainfall reached four inches an hour at times. The rate of rainfall (how much rain falls in a given time period) and the fact that the rain never let up for hours on end, aided in the development of this catastrophic scenario that set up.
The geography of the Hill Country only contributes to flooding like this. The hills create a funnel, so all the rain that falls, races down the hillsides and into the rivers below. All of this water flowing into the river beds at once causes them to rise sharply. In the case of the Guadalupe River, it rose 26 feet in 45 minutes.
According to the Weather Prediction Center, more than 20 inches of rain fell in Streeter, Texas, which is north of Kerrville. In a tweet, they show how Texas is no stranger to double digit rainfall totals caused from tropical systems.
The heart-breaking images like the ones we are seeing come out of Texas has reminded me of how quickly these events can unfold. I’ll never forget Memorial Day weekend in 2015, covering the deadly floods from Wimberly, Texas. The Blanco River rose 45 feet in one hour, killing 13 people and destroying 400 homes.
More rain to come
Unfortunately more rain is in the forecast for some of the hardest hit areas in Texas. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted the area for a risk of flooding across central Texas, with the potential for several more inches of rain to fall. On and off showers and isolated storms are in the forecast through mid-week.
While just “a few” inches may not sound like much, the fact that the ground is already so saturated, and flooding is still ongoing, it won’t take much rain at all for further flooding to take place.
Here’s a live look at where the rain is now:
Current Radar, Watches And Warnings
It’s extremely important to stay weather aware and have a way to get weather alerts, and follow instructions from emergency officials should they be given.
Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has been covering some of the world’s biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.