An area of low pressure formed off the coast of Jacksonville on Friday and could develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm, according to the National Hurricane Center.
In its 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the NHC said the system generating showers and thunderstorms was located about 100 miles off the northeast Florida coast.
“Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical or subtropical depression could form late today or on Saturday while the system drifts northward,” forecasters said. “This low is expected to move inland over the southeastern U.S. Saturday night or early Sunday.”
Whether it develops or not, heavy rainfall is possible across a massive swath of the Florida peninsula through early Saturday and then across coastal sections of the Carolinas.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later Friday.
The NHC gives it a 60% chance to develop in the next two days, and 60% within the next seven.
If it did become a named story, it could develop into Tropical Storm Chantal, the third of the season.
The National Weather Service in Melbourne said the area of low pressure combined with a stalled front over the state has meant a buildup of moisture that could drop several rounds of rain on parts of the state through Friday.
Similar rain on Thursday led to some local areas in Central Florida seeing 4 inches of rain.
“This is a reasonable worst-case scenario that persists for today`s storms as well,” forecasters said. “A few wind gusts from 35-45 mph have a
low chance of accompanying the strongest storms.”
This is the first system of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season that could threaten the U.S.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts 13 to 19 named storms this year, of which 6-10 will become hurricanes. Three to five of those would grow into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.
Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.