The Pacific hurricane season is running nearly a month ahead of schedule, experts say, as the basin sees its fifth named storm and second hurricane of the season, which began just over a month ago.
Hurricane Erick took shape early Wednesday and is expected to bring “life-threatening flash floods” to portions of southern Mexico late Wednesday into Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
As of Wednesday morning, the storm was located about 160 miles south-southeast of Puerto Ángel, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and higher gusts.
Forecasters said “rapid strengthening” is likely throughout the day, and Erick could reach major hurricane strength as it nears the southern coast of Mexico on Thursday. The center of the storm is expected to approach the coast late Wednesday and move inland or near the shoreline by Thursday.
The hurricane is likely to produce rainfall totals between 8 and 16 inches — with maximum totals up to 20 inches — across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, USA TODAY reported.
The rainfall will lead to “life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain,” the hurricane center said Wednesday. Lighter rainfall totals, between 3 and 8 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.
The hurricane center also warns of “life-threatening surf and rip current conditions” beginning Wednesday.
Will Hurricane Erick impact Texas?
Hurricane Erick formed in the eastern Pacific — a different basin from the Atlantic, where most storms that affect Texas develop. Pacific hurricanes generally move westward, away from the U.S. Gulf Coast, and rarely directly impact Texas.
Sometimes, lingering mid-level moisture from Pacific storms can drift northward, bringing chances of precipitation to Texas. However, current forecasts do not suggest that it will happen with Erick this time.
Hurricane Erick path tracker
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Hurricane Erick spaghetti models
Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Hurricane Erick tracker: Storm could bring floods, mudslides to Mexico