This report contains inflation adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland.
Introduction:
This report contains trade in goods data from the September 2024 release of HMRC’s Regional Trade in Goods Statistics (RTS), which relate to international trade in goods only, they exclude trade in services and inter-regional UK trade. Recent estimates are considered provisional until finalised by HMRC in August of the following year.
For consistency with other economic statistics for Scotland, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the annual Export Statistics Scotland (ESS), analysis in this report focuses on trade to and from Scotland’s onshore economy, and so excludes trade in mineral fuels (oil and gas). Estimates of oil and gas industry activity in Scotland, including its contribution to GDP and trade, are available in the Supply and use satellite accounts for extra-regio activities.
ESS contains figures for Scotland’s exports of goods and services excluding oil and gas products. It constructs estimates of exports directly by surveying Scottish businesses (unlike HMRC’s regional apportionment methodology). ESS also contains Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK unlike the RTS data. ESS is therefore the primary official source on Scotland’s exports. However the RTS are more timely for Scotland’s trade in goods compared to ESS. Further comparison of ESS with HMRC data is available in the ESS publication.
More detailed information can be found in the accompanying excel tables.
Real terms vs Current Prices
This report is the second in the series to include adjustment for inflation using Chained Volume Measures (CVM). In this release, ‘real terms’ refers to figures adjusted for inflation using CVM. Chained volume measures of export quantity have been introduced to illustrate how exports and imports have been changing over recent years when high price inflation has been the driving factor in changes in the value of trade.
More detailed information on CVM can be found in the accompanying methodology report
Figure 1 below shows the differences between the CVM and the current price (value) series for Scotland’s goods exports excluding oil, gas & erratic series (see Exclusions). The two series have noticeably diverged since the start of 2022.
Figure 1. The volume of Scotland’s international goods exports has decreased since the year ending June 2019, but has increased in value over this period
Index of Scotland’s international goods exports in real terms (CVM) and current prices (value), 2018 Q1 to 2024 Q2. Average of the year ending June 2019 = 100. [1]
[1] Excluding oil, gas and erratic series.
Throughout this report we present estimates of goods exports in current prices for the most recent year and use CVM, which adjust for the impact of inflation, when describing change over time. When referring to real term changes we describe these as percentage change.
When assessing the impact of different commodity groups on export trends, comparisons are based on changes in CVM indexed to the current price value of each series in the base period. These values are not provided in the report but are used to determine which commodity groups have contributed the most to overall changes.
Mineral fuels and erratic goods at the following SITC Division level (SITC2) are excluded from the CVM totals:
- 66 – Non-metallic minerals
- 68 – Non-ferrous metals
- 79 – Other transport equipment
- 97 – Non-Monetary Gold
- 93 – Special transactions
See Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland: Methodology for more information on erratic goods.
As this is only the second Scottish report in the series to include adjustment for inflation, the estimates in this report will not be comparable with all current price estimates previously released in the series for Scotland’s International Goods Trade. The accompanying tables do however show figures unadjusted for inflation (in current prices) and will be more comparable to previously published figures.
Please note that we have not yet applied this methodology to all the analysis in this report. Figures for trade with individual countries are currently provided in current prices only as CVM analysis is still in development.
Official statistics in development
Official statistics in development are official statistics that are undergoing development. These were previously referred to as experimental statistics.
More detail on designation of statistics can be found at: UK Statistics Authority – Types of official statistics (opens in a new window).
Users should be aware that official statistics in development may have a wider degree of uncertainty and require extra caution when interpreting results.
These statistics will remain in development while we:
- Further develop and assess the application of chained volume measures to this data
- Enhance our understanding of the value of this analysis to users
- Consider the implications of reporting routinely on an adjusted series
If you have any comments or feedback, please email exports.statistics@gov.scot.
Key Findings
Excluding oil and gas. Real terms comparisons also exclude erratic commodities
- When comparing the year ending June 2024 with the previous year, the value of Scotland’s international goods exports decreased by 8% in real terms to £22.5 billion, while Scotland’s goods imports increased in real terms by 4% to £22.9 billion. Overall, Scotland’s total international trade (imports + exports) in goods decreased in real terms by 2%.
- The decline in Scotland’s goods exports in real terms was driven largely by a 14% decline in the exports of Drink, a 13% decrease in exports of Power generating machinery and a 10% decrease in General industrial machinery. The largest of these decreases was the decrease in Drink, which accounted for around two fifths of the total decline.
- Over the longer term, Scotland has seen a 15% decrease in international goods exports in real terms, while UK exports decreased by 19%, in the year ending June 2024 compared to the equivalent period in 2019. Users should note that UK values in this report are not official statistics, they have been included for additional context only.
- Scotland’s exports to the EU have decreased by 17% in that time.
- The EU was Scotland’s top export destination, accounting for around 39% of the value of Scotland’s total goods exports. Around 16% of the value of Scotland’s goods exports to the EU was Drink. The United States is also an important trading destination for Scotland, accounting for around 17% of Scotland’s total export value.
- Over the year ending June 2024 the value of Scotland’s goods exports to the EU decreased by 8% in real terms to £8.8 billion. The largest decrease in real terms change was in Drink which accounted for around a third of the total decline. General industrial machinery and Cereals and cereal preparation also saw large declines.
- Drink is Scotland’s top export, accounting for around 21% of the value of Scotland’s international goods exports.
- Other transport equipment is an important commodity category for Scotland, and often ranks in the top ten exports in value terms. However, it is also considered an erratic category and so has not been included in CVM analysis. The current price value of Scotland’s other transport equipment exports decreased by 4% in the year ending June 2024 compared to the previous year. The volume exported decreased by 46%.
The analysis in this report are currently under development. We encourage users of these statistics to provide feedback by completing a short survey, which we will keep open while we consider the use of chained volume measures in this series of reports:
Scottish Government Regional Trade in Goods Report – User Survey (office.com)
International goods exports (EU and non-EU combined)
Over the twelve months to June, the value of Scotland’s international goods exports decreased by 8% to a value of £22.5 billion.
The commodity category with the highest export value in current prices in the year ending June 2024 was Drink at £4.7 billion. This was followed by Power generating machinery at £3.1 billion, General industrial machinery at £1.7 billion, Fish and shellfish at £1.2 billion, and Other transport equipment at £1.1 billion. These were the most significant exports in terms of value in current prices.
The decline in Scotland’s goods export value in real terms since the previous year was driven largely by a 14% decline in the exports of Drink, a 13% decrease in exports of Power generating machinery and a 10% decrease in General industrial machinery. The largest of these decreases was the decrease in Drink, which accounted for around two fifths of the total decline.
Drink and Power generating machinery account for 35% of Scotland’s international goods exports. In the year ending June 2024 exports of Drink accounted for 21% and Power generating machinery accounted for 14% of Scotland’s export value in current prices.
Figure 2. Drink accounted for 21% of the value of Scotland’s international goods exports, but decreased by 14% in real terms over the year
Current price value and real terms change (%) of Scotland’s top exported commodities: year ending June 2024 compared to the previous year
Since the year ending June 2019 Scotland’s goods export volume has performed better than the UK as a whole. The UK series has been included for context only, with the same commodity exclusions (erratic commodities) as applied to Scotland’s good exports. Commodity series which are considered erratic will not necessarily be the same in each region of the UK and therefore this chart should not be used to assess export Performance of the UK. The values presented here for the UK should not be considered an official statistic.
Figure 3. Scotland’s goods exports in real terms have performed better than the UK as a whole relative to the year ending June 2019
Index of international goods exports in real terms (CVM) for Scotland and the UK as a whole, 2018 Q1 to 2024 Q2. Average of the year ending June 2019 = 100. [1]
[1] Excluding oil, gas and erratic series.
Since the year ending June 2019 Scotland’s goods exports fell by 15% in real terms. This was driven by falls in Drink (down 11%), Power generating machinery (down 18%) and Apparel & Clothing (down 74%).
Goods imports
Over the year to June 2024 Scotland’s goods imports increased in real terms by 4% to a current price value of £22.9 billion.
The increase was largely driven by imports of Manufactures of metal (up 77%), Power generating machinery (up 24%) and Metalliferous ores & metal scrap (up 118%). Manufactures of metal and Power generating machinery saw the largest increases, each accounting for around a third of the overall increase.
There were decreases in real terms in imports of Office machinery (down 17%), Telecomms & sound recording (down 25%) and Professional & scientific instruments (down 19%).
EU imports increased by 4% in real terms between the year ending June 2024 and the previous year, driven largely by imports of Power generating machinery (up 87%). Imports from non-EU countries increased in real terms by 4% over this period, which was driven by imports of Manufactures of metal (up 106%).
Figure 6. Scotland’s non-EU goods imports are closer to pre-pandemic levels than EU imports in real terms
Index of Scotland’s international goods imports in real terms (CVM) by destination, 2018 Q2 to 2024 Q2. Average of the year ending June 2019 = 100. [1]
[1] Excluding oil, gas and erratic series.
From around the start of 2020, the EU real terms import series for Scotland has remained below that of non-EU imports. The index for EU imports is below the year ending June 2019 base in the most recent period, whereas the non-EU average for the most recent year is actually 3% higher. Therefore any increases in current prices for imports are likely to be strongly impacted by inflation for EU imports.
Over the longer term Scotland’s imports in real terms have decreased (down 3% in the year ending June 2024 since the corresponding period in 2019). EU imports decreased by 12% over this period, while non-EU imports increased by 3%.
Goods trade by destination in current prices
The EU was Scotland’s top goods export destination in the year ending June 2024, accounting for 39% (£8.8 billion) of the value of Scotland’s total goods exports during this period. Drink was the top export, making up 16% (£1.4 billion) of the value of Scotland’s total goods exports to the EU. See Goods Exports to the EU for further details.
The United States is also an important trading partner, making up 17% of the value of Scotland’s international goods exports. Scotland’s exports to the United States increased by £93 million since the previous year, which was driven largely by an increase in the current price value of Medicinal & pharmaceutical products (up £88 million in current prices), Power generating machinery (up £49 million), and Chemical materials & products (up £45 million).
The largest decreases in the current price value of exports to the United States, were seen in Drink (down £84 million), Non-ferrous metals (down £46 million), and Organic chemicals (down £25 million).
Although Scotland’s goods exports to the United States saw an increase in value terms, there was a 3% decrease in volume terms since the previous year, which indicates that the value of exports may be influenced by price changes.
The top ten export destinations accounted for 77% of the total value of Scotland’s goods exports. Of the top ten export destinations the United States and Brazil saw the largest growth, increasing by £93 million and £66 million in current prices respectively.
The destinations with the greatest declines in current price export value between the year ending June 2024 and the previous year were the EU (down £815 million) and China (down £190 million).
Figure 7. The EU was the top export destination for Scotland’s goods exports
Value of goods exports to the top ten export destination countries in current prices and percentage of total in the year ending June 2024
In terms of Scotland’s imports, the EU was the top trading partner accounting for 50% of the value of Scotland’s goods imports in the year ending June 2024, followed by China (13% of the value of total imports) and the United States (13% of total import value).
The greatest increase in import value since the previous year was seen in imports from UAE (up £186 million in current prices) while imports from China saw the largest decrease (down £367 million in current prices).
Figure 8. The EU was the top market for Scotland’s goods imports
Value of goods imports in current prices for the top regions and percentage of total imports in the year ending June 2024
Source: Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland Q2 2024
Credits: Scottish Government
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.