With Republican-backed redistricting plans advancing in Texas and now Missouri that could help the party retain command of Congress next year, Florida GOP leaders may be next in line to follow President Trump’s directive.
The seated president’s party historically loses seats in midterm elections, which occur next year. But Trump is out to keep the GOP in control – and even build on its wafer-thin lead in the U.S. House – with a rare round of mid-decade redistricting.
“More seats equals less Crime, a great Economy, and a STRONG SECOND AMENDMENT,” Trump posted on his Truth Social site last month. “It means Happiness and Peace.”
Red state Texas started the off-cycle redistricting drive, approving a map that created five additional Republican-leaning congressional districts. Blue state California is seeking voter approval to fight back.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and House Speaker Daniel Perez, R-Miami, are responding to President Trump’s call for mid-decade redistricting to imrpove GOP chances of retaining control of Congress.
But more Republican-heavy states are now engaged. Missouri is redrawing its map. Ohio and Utah also intend to create new boundaries that could add GOP-leaning seats.
And then there’s Florida.
Republicans are emboldened by a 1.3 million-voter lead over registered Democrats statewide, the largest margin held by the GOP in Florida history.
House Speaker Daniel Perez, R-Miami, is planning for his newly formed Select Committee on Congressional Redistricting to meet in October. The Senate hasn’t taken any steps yet toward redistricting.
‘Ron v. Don’ primaries shaping up for Republicans
Perez, though, also is now being urged by Trump to run for Florida attorney general next year, perhaps adding more incentive for him to do what the president is seeking in redistricting.
A Perez candidacy would set up a primary clash between one candidate backed by Trump, and another supported by Gov. Ron DeSantis. Current Attorney General James Uthemeier is DeSantis’ former chief-of-staff and was appointed by the governor to the Cabinet post in February.
Trump’s team is also promoting Republican state Rep. Kevin Steele as a possible challenger to DeSantis’ appointed state Chief Financial Officer, Blaise Ingoglia, setting up another in what could be a series of “Ron v. Don” primaries next year in Florida.
While Trump and DeSantis vie over who controls Republican politics in Florida, the governor is on board with holding the off-cycle round of redistricting.
DeSantis’ support comes even though the governor effectively created the current boundaries set in 2022 after he vetoed a congressional map drawn by the Legislature.
DeSantis insisted the Legislature’s plan included racial gerrymandering. And when the map was redrawn and DeSantis’ plan was adopted by lawmakers, the North Florida seat held by former U.S. Rep. Al Lawson, a Black Democrat from Tallahassee, was eliminated.
The Florida Supreme Court, five of whose seven members were appointed by DeSantis, upheld the map in July. Justices agreed the old Lawson boundaries were likely an illegal race-based gerrymander that violated federal equal protection rights.
Republicans dominate Florida’s congressional delegation
Under the new DeSantis-crafted map, Republicans won an additional four seats in 2022 and continue to control 20 of the 28 U.S. House seats representing Florida.
But with the redrawing idea now on the table, as many as five Democratic-held seats are said to be eyed as potential targets if redistricting occurs in the next legislative session, which begins in January.
Still, Florida’s voter-approved Fair Districts constitutional standards governing redistricting will be a hurdle for ruling Republicans.
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Fair Districts prohibit drawing districts with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or incumbent, or to diminish the ability of racial or language minorities to elect representatives of their choice.
While the U.S. Supreme Court has taken a hands-off approach to partisan gerrymandering, Florida law bars it. And that could be a problem for Florida Republicans which the GOP hasn’t faced elsewhere.
“It’s illegal in Florida, what they’re trying to do,” said Amy Keith, executive director of Common Cause Florida. “It would be hard to claim that partisan politics is not behind this.”
GOP voters not seeking re-do of districts
A new poll by Common Cause shows 55% of Floridians oppose the mid-decade redistricting, including 45% of Republicans. Only 36% of Republicans support another redraw, the survey showed.
Many analysts, though, say Florida Republicans may argue that redistricting is needed to correct a congressional map that they could contend still violates federal equal protection standards.
South Florida’s Congressional District 20, held by U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, has a roughly 50% Black population spanning Broward and Palm Beach counties. It’s the most Democratic-leaning district in the state and any reduction of its minority voting share could redistribute voters into neighboring South Florida districts.
Those districts, in turn, would also need some reworking. For Republicans, the end goal would be to make the state’s few remaining Democratic seats more competitive for GOP candidates.
U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, a Parkland Democrat, is in a district Republicans think they can win – with some tweaking of boundaries. U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Tampa, also could be a Republican target.
Will one more seat out of Florida satisfy Trump?
But picking up an additional Republican seat in Florida may be enough for DeSantis and legislative Republicans to satisfy Trump, who polls show is struggling with historically low job approval ratings.
“Florida’s congressional plan is already such a red map,” said Matt Isbell, a Democratic data consultant. He warned that making some Democratic seats more competitive must be achieved by relocating some GOP voters away from incumbent Republican congressional districts.
That could make those districts “swingish,” risking a ‘dummymander’ where Democrats might actually gain influence, Isbell said.
While mid-decade redistricting is emerging, another Trump idea backed by DeSantis appears fading: The plan to conduct a mid-decade U.S. Census.
Both Trump and DeSantis envision excluding undocumented residents from the count, a move certain to draw constitutional challenges. But in his pitch for another round of redistricting, DeSantis complains that Florida was undercounted in the 2020 Census, costing the state a possible additional seat in Congress.
DeSantis, as he often does, blamed former President Biden for what analysts acknowledge is a likely Census undercount in Florida and several other red states.
But it was DeSantis and Florida Republicans who refused to spend any state money in 2019 and 2020 to promote Census participation.
“We know how long it takes to prepare for a census, because we’ve got one coming up in 2030 and some people are preparing for it now,” said Michael McDonald, a political scientist and elections expert at the University of Florida.
“Now, a mid-decade Census looks like a non-starter,” he added. “The clock is already ticking on the 2026 election.”
John Kennedy is a reporter in the USA TODAY Network’s Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at jkennedy2@gannett.com, or on X at @JKennedyReport.
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Florida Republican leaders respond to Trump’s redistricting call