Light rail expansion in Hampton Roads hinges on Norfolk’s stalled plans for Military Circle, local officials say, but beyond that the future is dimming as a result of skyrocketing construction costs in recent years.
Hampton Roads Transit was nearing completion of the environmental impact study on a 2-mile extension to Military Circle but was instructed to stop because it could not define the end-of-line station. For now, HRT remains in a “holding pattern,” and no work has been done on the study since at least August 2023.
The more time passes, the more expensive the project gets. The cost of rail cars alone has quadrupled since The Tide opened in 2011, according to Ray Amoruso, chief planning and development officer for HRT, along with the cost for materials involved in the infrastructure required.
“I believe our partners are there, are willing to do this 2-mile extension and have a stop across the street from Sentara Leigh. I think it’s a win-win for everyone because it gives a true east-end anchor with mixed use development as part of the Military Circle Mall redevelopment,” Amoruso said.
“What happens beyond that, I will tell you, I am uncertain about the future of light rail simply because you look at the post-pandemic world — nationally, not just in Hampton Roads — there aren’t many people doing light rail anymore because of how expensive it’s gotten to construct. Steel, material goods, construction pricing has all gone through the roof.”
For example, two light rail extension projects in Minnesota have seen dramatic cost increases in recent years. The Southwest LRT Green Line extension was projected to cost $1.25 billion in 2018 but that has since increased by about 232% to $2.9 billion, while the Blue Line extension was projected to cost just under $1 billion in 2022 and is now projected to cost $3.2 billion.
In Washington, the cost of building the 16-mile Purple Line increased from a projected $1.97 billion to $3.4 billion by 2022.
The most recent alternative expansion of light rail to be considered in Hampton Roads was into Chesapeake as part of the Connecting Chesapeake initiative, but light rail was ruled out as a possibility this spring “given its extraordinary cost” compared to bus rapid transit, Amoruso said.
“If you don’t have dedicated funding like they do out in Seattle or Denver, where they passed a special referendum to fund these projects, now you’re competing for discretionary funds through Congress,” Amoruso said. “Only the strongest projects for the highest ridership get funding, but even that Congress is only funding about $2 billion per year nationally so you really have to be in a strong percentile.”
Chesapeake City Council later this month will consider a resolution on which of two remaining bus rapid transit alignments to pursue.
The Tide remains a significant boon to some of downtown Norfolk’s biggest attractions, though ridership still hasn’t returned to pre-pandemic levels. So far in 2025, the Tide’s highest ridership was in April with 82,617 riders, a drop of about 32% compared with 121,162 passengers in April 2019.
The opening weekend of the Norfolk Tides season in March saw ridership more than double from an average of 2,307 riders to 5,108 per day from March 28 to March 30. For the series of Savannah Bananas games in August, ridership for the Tide nearly tripled from a daily average of 2,389 to 6,785 per day from Aug. 16 to Aug. 18.
Norfolk City Council member Tommy Smigiel, a longtime skeptic of light rail, said he believes it unlikely that The Tide will be extended even to Military Circle — partly due to cost, but also uncertainty over what development will happen there.
“I don’t even know what we would end up proposing (at Military Circle) that would require a better mode of transportation or additional modes of transportation like light rail,” Smigiel said.
Smigiel said he believes public transportation is “needed” and that “successful cities have a good public transit system,” but he lamented the placement of The Tide, saying he doesn’t believe it was built in the right position to connect areas with a large enough population to make it worthwhile.
He also has strong doubts there would be enough support for a special referendum to fund additional light rail.
“If you don’t get the federal funding or special state funding it can’t happen,” Smigiel said. “I’m sure that if I ever had to go out into my communities to ask them if they support a referendum to fund light rail expansion I think it would be dead on arrival. Over the years when I’ve talked about light rail that’s how people have generally felt about it.”
Phil Shucet, former Virginia Department of Transportation commissioner and CEO of HRT who oversaw the construction of The Tide in 2011, said he still sees expansion a “net benefit” to the region. Shucet believes extending it to the Oceanfront is the best way forward, despite repeated failures to gain enough support from Virginia Beach residents.
“If it’s going to be expanded anywhere, an expansion into Virginia Beach should continue to be considered,” Shucet said. “Maybe winds will shift again.”
Shucet added that since the majority of light rail riders in Hampton Roads do so out of necessity, local leaders should look for opportunities to make it the transportation option of choice.
“I can say emphatically it would be unwise to abandon it, we should continue to look for incentives including more free days to increase ridership,” Shucet said.
Gavin Stone, 757-712-4806, gavin.stone@virginiamedia.com