May 27—The number of available jobs in Maine is the lowest it’s been since a pandemic-induced drop in 2020, according to new data from the federal government.
There were 28,000 openings in March in Maine, according to seasonally adjusted data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That number has been trending downward for the last 18 months.
Experts say it is a sign the state’s labor shortage is easing as available workers and available positions start to balance out.
“We’re really returning toward normalcy,” said Glenn Mills, chief economist at the Maine Department of Labor. “The pandemic onset was five years ago, and it took a long time to get back to where we were.”
But the impacts of the Trump administration’s tariffs are still creeping in, and some expect that progress will be short-lived.
COMPETITION COOLS
The number of open jobs in Maine hit new heights in 2021 as the world reopened from the pandemic lockdown. Maine logged a record 53,000 job openings in October 2023. Maine’s unemployment rate hit an all-time low of 2.4% in March 2023.
Maine quickly became a job-seeker’s market. Seasonal and year-round businesses alike said they were struggling to fill employee rosters.
Some closed as a result. Others began rethinking how they could attract more workers in such a competitive environment.
But following that 2023 peak, job listings began falling. Compared to this March, with 28,000 openings, Maine had between 37,000 and 51,000 openings each March from 2021 to 2024.
REACHING AN EQUILIBRIUM
Paul Shea, a macroeconomics professor at Bates College, said a healthy economy needs a balance between the number of people looking for jobs and the number of jobs available.
Shea and Mills, with the Department of Labor, said Maine’s rebalance has been years in the making, resulting from efforts by the Federal Reserve to reduce inflation.
“(The rate of job openings) has plateaued right around where the Fed wants it to be in the long run,” Shea said. “It’s actually a pretty big policy success from the perspective of the Fed.”
Shea is pessimistic, though, about how long things will remain that way.
BRACING FOR TARRIFS
The country is bracing for the impacts of tariffs to hit. And Shea said the impending tax bill and slowdown of government spending are also impacting the economy.
Many experts say a recession is on the way.
The labor market, however, will be the last aspect to be affected. Shea predicts the rate of new hires will fall, then the layoff rate and finally, Maine’s unemployment rate.
“The labor market is a lagging indicator of the economy,” he said. “It’s telling you what has already happened, more than what’s happening next.”
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