Will Tropical Storm Andrea form today, June 23, just over three weeks after the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season started?
The National Hurricane Center said at 2 a.m. Invest 90L could strengthen into “a short-lived tropical depression or storm” as soon as later today.”
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Six hours later, at 8 a.m., forecasters said environmental conditions were still “marginally favorable for further development,” but mentioned only that a tropical depression could form today.
The first named storm in the Atlantic basin will be Andrea.
Chances remain high for development, 70%.
Don’t expect a storm or depression, if either develop, to last long. Environmental conditions are expected to end its chances for further development as it heads northeast away from the United States.
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. June 23.
Will Tropical Storm Andrea develop today in Atlantic?
Invest 90L could become a tropical depression June 23, 2025.
Satellite images indicate disorganized showers and thunderstorms are displaced to the east of an area of low pressure designated as Invest 90L.
The system is located about 600 miles east of Bermuda, the National Hurricane Center said at its 8 a.m. advisory. T
Environmental conditions are still marginally favorable for further development, and an increase in thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression today.
By Tuesday, June 24, this system is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for development.
The system is forecast to move northeast around 10 mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 70 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: high, 70 percent.
What is an invest?
Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.
Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They’re usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they’ve been designated as an invest does not guarantee they’ll strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane.
Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.
Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models
Spaghetti models for Invest 90L in Atlantic. Track the system of low pressure
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now?
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three tropical waves in the Atlantic basin.
Tropical wave 1: The tropical wave previously located along 45W is relocated farther west along 52WScattered moderate convection is evident near the southern end of the wave axis from 04N to 10N and between 50W and 50W. The wave axis reaches French Guiana.
Tropical wave 2: A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is along 63W, south of 18N, moving westward around 17 to 23 mph.
Tropical wave 3: A second tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Its axis is along 75W, south of 17N, moving westward around 11 to 17 mph. The wave appears to enhance convection over northern Colombia.
“The average first named storm in the Atlantic is June 20, but development over the central and eastern basin looks unfavorable through June at this time,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.
Is more Saharan dust heading toward Florida?
The next plume of dust that could impact South Florida may arrive around June 27 and could last a few days, DaSilva said via email.
Why have the tropics been so quiet in the Atlantic basin?
“Strong wind shear and an abundance of Saharan dust is helping to protect Florida,” DaSilva said.
“The average first named storm in the Atlantic is June 20 and the average first hurricane is Aug. 11. It is not really that unusual for the start of the season to be quiet. Water temperatures and ocean heat content remain very high in the Gulf.
“I think once we get more into the heart of the season, things could get very active. Expect a second-half loaded season.
Dry air, including associated Saharan dust, along with wind shear, both prevent tropical systems from developing or strengthening, essentially cutting off the fuel storms need.
Florida weather radar for June 23, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When does hurricane season start? When is the peak?
Hurricane season’s ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Hurricane season starts June 1 in the Atlantic basin.
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
Hurricane: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
Typhoon: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
Cyclone: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
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This story was updated to add new information.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: NOAA tracking Invest 90L, showing high chance development