Tropical Storm Jerry continued twisting in the open Atlantic and a new tropical disturbance joined three other tropical waves in the National Hurricane Center’s Oct. 11 outlook.
Subtropical Storm Karen was downgraded Oct. 10, a day after becoming the 11th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. As forecast, Karen moved into colder water and became a post-tropical low.
Tropical Storm Jerry was bringing heavy rain and 60 mph winds as it pulled away from the northern Leeward Islands.
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Jerry is not forecast to become a hurricane. Winds are forecast to fall well short of the 74 mph threshold to be classified as a hurricane.
Jerry and the other storms are not factors in what’s causing all the rain along the east coast of Florida. Areas including Edgewater, Brevard County, parts of the Treasure Coast and Jupiter reported flood water on roads and in some homes and businesses from heavy rains Thursday and Friday. More may be coming Saturday as conditions from a nor’easter continue, but then are expeted to pull away to the north.
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 11:
Storm tracker: Tropical Storm Jerry brings gusty winds, heavy rain to Leeward Islands
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Jerry
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Tropical Storm Jerry no longer expected to strengthen into hurricane
Tropical Storm Jerry is no longer expected to strengthen into a hurricane. Winds Saturday were at 60 mph. A storm becomes a hurricane when sustained winds reach at least 74 mph.
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
No.
At 5 a.m. Saturday, Tropical Storm Jerry turned northward and then is forecast to continue north-northeastward through the weeekend before turning east on Monday and staying away from Florida and the U.S.
What other tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now?
Along with Tropical Storm Jerry, the National Hurricane Center is tracking four tropical waves, including two in the Caribbean:
Forecasters say a tropical wave to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The system is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic over the next several days.
Formation chance through 48 hours: Low, near zero percent
Formation chance through 7 days: Low, 20 percent
Also:
A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 43W from 11N to 20N, moving W at 11 to 17 mph.
A west-central Caribbean tropical wave is near 76W from 20N southward was moving west at 11 mph.
A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 86W and S of 18N was moving west at 11 mph.
Who is likely to be impacted by Tropical Storm Jerry?
Swells generated by Tropical Story Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are expected to spread toward the Bahamas on Saturday.
The storm is forecast to curve north and then east, staying away from Florida and the U.S. east coast.
However, Florida can expect rough surf and dangerous rip currents along the coast from the combined effects of a the east coast nor’easter and Tropical Storm Jerry, according to Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert in an email Oct. 9.
“The coastal storm, combined with Jerry, will bring rough surf and rip currents to Florida through at least Monday. Both storms will contribute to the rough seas,” DaSilva said.
Florida weather radar for Oct. 11, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
Hurricane season’s ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them. The first hurricane of the season typically forms Aug. 11.
Erin: (Aug. 11; hurricane Aug. 15; major hurricane Aug. 16)Gabrielle: (Sept. 17; hurricane Sept. 21; major hurricane Sept. 22)Humberto: (Sept. 24; hurricane Sept. 26; major hurricane Sept. 25)Imelda: (Sept. 28; hurricane Sept. 30)
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters are watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
Hurricane: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
Typhoon: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
Cyclone: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
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This story has been updated to include new information.
This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Hurricane Center tracking Tropical Storm Jerry, new Atlantic system