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New Home Sales Show Signs of Life, but Breakout Hinges on Rate Cuts

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March came in better than expected at 724K (vs 684K estimates), as the 30-YR average fixed mortgage went from 6.76% to 6.65%.

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+50K new homes sold over last month (+7.4%), & +6.0% above last year.

Still about 30% below the October 2020 peak of +1,031K, but rates were also below 3% at that time.

The supply of new homes fell from 8.9 months of inventory in February to 8.3 months.

New Home Sales-Single Family

Median sales price for new homes came in at $403,600 (-2% m/m, & -7.5% y/y). About 12% below the October 2020 peak of $460,300. Median Sales Price

The monthly gains were attributed to the South (+58K), and the Midwest (+2K), while the West (-2K) and the Northeast (-8K) fell.

Good to see a little pick up in activity, but sales have been range bound for years and probably will remain that way until we get some relief in rates.





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