faces one of its most important earnings days yet. Analysts expect revenue near $45.8B and EPS at $1.00, both marking growth above 50% YoY. To put that in perspective, EPS of $1.00 implies Nvidia will generate roughly $24–25B in quarterly profit, compared to about $17B in the same quarter last year. At a share price of ~$182, this places Nvidia’s forward P/E ratio at ~45x, a rich valuation even by tech standards. With a market cap of $4.4T, Nvidia is the world’s most valuable company, and its results will serve as a referendum on the AI bull market. Options markets are pricing a 6–8% swing, showing how much traders are bracing for volatility.
China: From Growth Engine to Flashpoint
China once contributed nearly 13% of Nvidia’s revenue (~$5.5B). That share has collapsed to almost zero this quarter, after Beijing discouraged use of the H20 chip and Washington imposed a 15% revenue cut on China AI chip sales. Nvidia halted H20 production, but the story may not end here. A performance-capped Blackwell chip is in development and could restore sales later this year. For now, displaced units are being absorbed globally, keeping topline damage contained.
Margins Under the Microscope
Gross margins are expected to land around 71–72%. The risks come from Blackwell ramp costs, expensive HBM memory, and the new U.S. licensing fee on China sales. A slip below 70.5% would raise alarms, while stability near 72% would show Nvidia’s ability to scale supply without eroding profitability.
Supply, Competition, and the Moat
The Blackwell GB200 ramp is the centerpiece of Nvidia’s story. Earlier rack-scale issues appear resolved, with peak shipments expected in Q2–Q3. Competitors are stepping up—’s MI350 series and Google’s TPU v5p—but Nvidia’s CUDA ecosystem, networking dominance, and deep integration with hyperscalers remain unmatched. The competition may cap pricing power, but demand remains far ahead of supply.
Bottom Line
Nvidia’s earnings go beyond the numbers—they are the market’s confidence check on AI itself. A strong beat-and-raise scenario could push the company closer to the $5T market cap milestone and extend the rally in tech. But even a modest stumble on revenue, guidance, or margins could spark a sharp correction, underlining how dependent global markets have become on a single stock.