Orange County Public Schools’ enrollment is down nearly 7,000 students from May, a drop that could lead to budget cuts and job losses and may be fueled by immigrant families who are fearful of sending their children to campus, officials said.
Central Florida’s largest school district predicted a loss of about 3,100 students for the school year that started Aug. 11, but early student counts show another 3,600 aren’t in class either.
An enrollment drop more than double what was expected could mean a loss of another $25 million in state funding, Deputy Superintendent Michael Armbruster told the Orange County School Board on Tuesday. The district had planned last spring for about $28 million less in state money this year, but now faces a decline that is nearly double that.
“We are already collaborating with schools to make sure no school is cut more than necessary. But just needed to make you aware that we’ve got a burden to carry right now, but we’re working to carry it,” Armbruster said.
The school district did not immediately respond to questions Wednesday about whether the enrollment problem could lead to teacher layoffs or other specific budget cuts. OCPS said it cut budgets by 2% months ago anticipating about 3,100 fewer students for the 2025-26 year.
The enrollment declines this month are largely at OCPS elementary schools, though middle schools were hit as well. The loss of students has been felt at schools across the county, from Apopka Elementary School (down about 30) to Dr. Phillips Elementary School (down nearly 70) to Hunter’s Creek Middle School (down about 70).
Armbruster said that most of the additional student losses this month seem to come from the immigrant population.
Angie Gallo, a school board member, said her heart sank when she was briefed on enrollment, specifically about the loss of immigrant students.
“I don’t know where the kids are learning. I don’t know if they’re safe. None of that is known to us. We don’t know where they are, and so it’s really heartbreaking,” she said.
Principals at schools were making calls and knocking on doors of immigrant families, just to find empty apartments and homes, Gallo said.
There’s fear among local immigrant families as the Trump administration ramps up deportation efforts, said Felipe Sousa-Lazaballet, the executive director of the immigrant-rights group Hope CommUnity Center in Apopka.
So the loss in immigrant students isn’t surprising, Sousa-Lazaballet said.
Immigrant families are living a “nightmare” right now, he said. “Parents are struggling to decide whether to send their children to school for them to receive an education, or potentially lose them forever if they are interrogated alone,” he said.
The drop in enrollment is the district’s biggest since the 2020-21 school year, which saw a 10,000-student decline in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. But that COVID-era enrollment decline was largely temporary and also was offset by the arrival of federal COVID-19 funding, which dried up this school year.
The district has blamed some of its recent enrollment loss on the expansion of Florida’s school voucher program, which provides money for private school scholarships and homeschooling services and has lured many students around the state away from traditional public schools.
The state expanded its voucher program in 2023, wiping out family income requirements, and voucher use has jumped 67% since then, with thousands of students leaving public schools for the new options. By 2030, voucher use is expected to grow by another 32% to almost 700,000 students, according to state projections.
OCPS announced in April that it hired a consultant to recruit families back to public schools, agreeing to pay the firm almost $1,000 for every student student who re-enrolled in a district school in an effort to mitigate the funding loss.
Superintendent Maria Vazquez said a few weeks ago that early returns showed several hundred students returned to OCPS because of the firm’s work. Enrollment also typically grows in September as some new students do not enroll until after Labor Day, but historical figures suggest that wouldn’t make up for an enrollment that is about 6,700 students below where it was when the last school year ended in May.
Lake County Schools, which projected a loss of 1,500 students this year, said its enrollment was down only a modest 211 students so far this month. Seminole County Public Schools, which also expected fewer students this year, did not immediately respond to a request for its current enrollment.